OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
TASC 2026.08 An Ag Selling Model
█ OVERVIEW
This strategy implements the "Ag Selling Model" as presented by Perry J. Kaufman in the August 2026 edition of the TASC Traders' Tips "Identifying The Best Price Levels For Selling Commodity Futures". The article describes a long-hold selling strategy for agricultural commodity futures based around the seasonal harvest timing of crops, mainly US grains traded on the CBOT and KCBOT, both which have been acquired by CME.
█ CONCEPTS
This model was originally presented in 1978 by the author to a group of commodity producers as an attempt to identify the best price levels to sell their products.
The core idea is that if there is only one crop per year, crop prices will be lowest around harvest and highest around peak growing season. Based on this timing, the strategy spaces out its sell orders up to three times throughout the year, and covers its position at harvest.
The goal of this strategy is simply to beat the average price. Since selling at harvest should typically provide a lower-than-average price exit, success for this strategy means having the average of its entries above the average price.
The level to sell at can be determined by finding a moving average that reflects seasonal changes. Once found, we measure volatility using Average True Range (ATR).
With these two figures, the volatility is added to the average based on a multiplication factor.
This creates a reasonable extreme at which to position short entries.
█ THE RULES
▌Properties
IMPORTANT NOTE: The strategy parameters have been adjusted specifically for Corn Futures (ZC1!). This ticker operates in Cents (USX) rather than Dollars (USD); all the strategy values have been translated to account for this. To apply this strategy to other markets it is important to properly adjust the strategy parameters to simulate realistic conditions.
█ INPUTS
This strategy implements the "Ag Selling Model" as presented by Perry J. Kaufman in the August 2026 edition of the TASC Traders' Tips "Identifying The Best Price Levels For Selling Commodity Futures". The article describes a long-hold selling strategy for agricultural commodity futures based around the seasonal harvest timing of crops, mainly US grains traded on the CBOT and KCBOT, both which have been acquired by CME.
█ CONCEPTS
This model was originally presented in 1978 by the author to a group of commodity producers as an attempt to identify the best price levels to sell their products.
The core idea is that if there is only one crop per year, crop prices will be lowest around harvest and highest around peak growing season. Based on this timing, the strategy spaces out its sell orders up to three times throughout the year, and covers its position at harvest.
The goal of this strategy is simply to beat the average price. Since selling at harvest should typically provide a lower-than-average price exit, success for this strategy means having the average of its entries above the average price.
The level to sell at can be determined by finding a moving average that reflects seasonal changes. Once found, we measure volatility using Average True Range (ATR).
With these two figures, the volatility is added to the average based on a multiplication factor.
This creates a reasonable extreme at which to position short entries.
█ THE RULES
- Sell short at the selling level.
- Delay these sells to ensure two sells are not in the same rally.
- Avoid selling immediately after harvest, as a long period of low prices typically follows.
- Exit positions (cover shorts) at harvest.
▌Properties
IMPORTANT NOTE: The strategy parameters have been adjusted specifically for Corn Futures (ZC1!). This ticker operates in Cents (USX) rather than Dollars (USD); all the strategy values have been translated to account for this. To apply this strategy to other markets it is important to properly adjust the strategy parameters to simulate realistic conditions.
- Initial Capital: 15,000,000¢ == $150,000; see note above.
- Position Sizing: This strategy sells in one-contract increments up to three times per year.
- Commissions: Commission value is set to 300¢ ($3) per order, which is a generous estimate.
- Slippage: Slippage is set to one tick to simulate reasonable execution conditions.
█ INPUTS
- Source: Source for calculations.
- MA length: Moving Average length (Simple Moving Average). A 20 to 60 day range is recommended; with 40 as a starting point.
- ATR length: Average True Range length.
- ATR factor: Factor by which to multiply ATR when calculating selling level. 2.5 to 3.5 is generally recommended but higher has been seen for more volatile grains.
- Month of Harvest: Set the month of harvest for the crop being traded, which changes depending on the seasonality of the commodity.
- Delay in months after harvest: Set this to the typical downtime after harvest where prices are typically lowest. This can vary per instrument but 2 months is the suggested point for tuning.
- Days between trades: Days to wait between sales.
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开源脚本
秉承TradingView的精神，该脚本的作者将其开源，以便交易者可以查看和验证其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免费使用该脚本，但请记住，重新发布代码须遵守我们的网站规则。
Tools and ideas for all Pine coders: tradingview.com/u/PineCoders/
TASC: traders.com/
TASC: traders.com/
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。