Samsung accounts for roughly 9% of
EEM, one of my main long-term portfolio positions, so I follow it closely. Unfortunately, the chart isn't looking great right now. After a roughly 600% rally over the past year and a series of record quarterly results, the daily chart looks quite close to confirming a larger correction.On the weekly chart, every new high over the past few months has come with a bearish RSI divergence. The daily chart tells a similar story and is starting to resemble a distribution phase. There's a breakdown from a Rising Wedge, a failed attempt to reclaim the pattern, price has slipped below the yellow 50 SMA, and we've now printed the first lower low - at least if we count the wicks.
The key question now is whether price can make a higher high. If not, there's a good chance we're seeing a dead cat bounce before another leg lower. The green 200 MA is still bullish but sits much lower around 176K, while the measured breakdown target from the wedge comes in near 207K.
Samsung reports earnings in a few weeks. The last several quarters have all delivered record results and earnings beats, yet the chart is telling a different story. We'll see how the earnings and, more importantly, the guidance look. Will expectations be raised once again?
The same pattern is visible in
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF). It has also broken down from a very similar Rising Wedge, accompanied by bearish RSI divergences. The main support is now the yellow 50 MA around $579.5.In SMH's case, the distribution thesis is reinforced by the Elliott Wave structure and heavy selling volume.
So the chart of the Korean semiconductor giant looks remarkably similar to the chart of the leading U.S. semiconductor ETF. Add a strengthening
DXY on top of that, and it's hard not to argue that the entire semiconductor sector may be entering a global distribution phase.If we're indeed moving into a correction, it will probably last as long as the U.S. dollar remains strong. Naturally, Samsung is likely to feel that pressure even more than most U.S. semiconductor companies.
For now, it looks like better buying opportunities may appear over the coming months, in my opinion.
💙👽
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.