The market completely escaped the long-term accumulation zone with a Breakout candlestick with extremely strong momentum, breaking all the nearest resistance structures. Markup trend is in absolute control; trading tendency to prioritize holding Buy positions and increasing the proportion at technical corrections.
2. Review previous session recommendations
The main Buy position in the accumulation zone of 3,100 - 3,200 has achieved maximum effectiveness when the price decisively broke through the psychological resistance level of 3,400. The Breakout and Structural Conversion Confirmation Scenario (ChoCh) has been completed, bringing all Buy orders into a state of explosive profits. Currently, the stop loss is recommended to be raised to 3,350 to preserve profits.
3. Overview of trends & price structure
Aluminum has officially ended the long accumulation phase and moved into a strong markup phase with expansion acceleration. The market structure recorded a change in nature (ChoCh) and continuously established structural breaking points (BOS) in an upward direction, showing that the Buyers were completely dominant. The fact that the price surpassed the old Equal Highs (EQH) zones and closed at the session's highest confirms that large cash flows have decisively entered the market, eliminating all hanging supply pressure. The chart's logic shows that the market is in a state of strong upward momentum, heading directly towards the long-term target area without encountering any significant short-term resistance.
4. Technical prices
Resistance: 3,800 – 4,000 – 4,212
Support: 3,417 – 3,199
5. Price Action & Volume Analysis
Price Action, Volume & Open Interest: The most recent day's candle was a bullish Marubozu candle with an exceptionally long body, closing at 3,538.50. Trading volume exploded, reaching 428 (a sharp increase compared to the average of previous sessions). Although the OI data does not show detailed numbers on the chart, based on the candle amplitude and high green Volume, the market is in the state: Price increases + High green volume + OI increases → New money flows into Long, the uptrend is confirmed and sustainable. This is a signal confirming the absolute strength of the Buy side, showing that new money flows are continuously pouring in. market to push prices up.
Market sentiment & Cash flow: Hedge funds (Non-Commercial) are showing extreme determination when executing aggressive buy orders, pushing prices past the "Weak Peak" areas. Excitement is taking over as the price structure escapes the prolonged turbulence zone. Commercial traders show signs of stopping defensive selling activities (Short Hedge) and are waiting for higher prices to re-establish their positions, creating a supply gap that helps prices easily sublimate.
Price & Wave Structure: A steep ascending peak–trough sequence confirms the formation of a powerful impulse wave. According to the SMC method, the price has completed the liquidity sweep of the old peak area and is moving in a push to the final target (TP) at 4,212. The current price position is completely above the newly established Demand zones around 3,417. This bullish structure will only be invalidated if the price turns sharply lower and breaks the support level of 3,199, a scenario with extremely low probability in the context of current momentum.
6. Next session's trading scenario
Action: Continue to hold the existing Buy position. Target: 3,800 – 4,000. Stop Loss: Raise Trailing Stop to 3,450. Basis: Marubozu candle momentum and new cash flow ensure continued upward momentum.
Scenario 2 (25%): The price appears a technical correction (Retest) to test the support zone 3,417.
Action: Open another Buy position or buy a new one at area 3,420. Target: 4,212. Stop loss: 3,350. Basic: Re-test the demand force at the structural breakdown zone (BOS) before continuing the upward wave.
7. Recommendations by audience
Manufacturer/importer (Buyer): Implement purchase cost determination (Long Hedge) drastically right at short-term fluctuations. With the current Markup structure, aluminum prices are likely to reach the 4,000 mark very quickly, waiting for cheaper prices can pose a big risk in input costs.
Trade/export (Seller): Absolutely do not establish short positions that block the trend. Patiently wait for the price to approach the target area of 4,212 and clear reversal signals appear on the large frame before considering re-establishing short hedging positions (Short Hedge).
2. Review previous session recommendations
The main Buy position in the accumulation zone of 3,100 - 3,200 has achieved maximum effectiveness when the price decisively broke through the psychological resistance level of 3,400. The Breakout and Structural Conversion Confirmation Scenario (ChoCh) has been completed, bringing all Buy orders into a state of explosive profits. Currently, the stop loss is recommended to be raised to 3,350 to preserve profits.
3. Overview of trends & price structure
Aluminum has officially ended the long accumulation phase and moved into a strong markup phase with expansion acceleration. The market structure recorded a change in nature (ChoCh) and continuously established structural breaking points (BOS) in an upward direction, showing that the Buyers were completely dominant. The fact that the price surpassed the old Equal Highs (EQH) zones and closed at the session's highest confirms that large cash flows have decisively entered the market, eliminating all hanging supply pressure. The chart's logic shows that the market is in a state of strong upward momentum, heading directly towards the long-term target area without encountering any significant short-term resistance.
4. Technical prices
Resistance: 3,800 – 4,000 – 4,212
Support: 3,417 – 3,199
5. Price Action & Volume Analysis
Price Action, Volume & Open Interest: The most recent day's candle was a bullish Marubozu candle with an exceptionally long body, closing at 3,538.50. Trading volume exploded, reaching 428 (a sharp increase compared to the average of previous sessions). Although the OI data does not show detailed numbers on the chart, based on the candle amplitude and high green Volume, the market is in the state: Price increases + High green volume + OI increases → New money flows into Long, the uptrend is confirmed and sustainable. This is a signal confirming the absolute strength of the Buy side, showing that new money flows are continuously pouring in. market to push prices up.
Market sentiment & Cash flow: Hedge funds (Non-Commercial) are showing extreme determination when executing aggressive buy orders, pushing prices past the "Weak Peak" areas. Excitement is taking over as the price structure escapes the prolonged turbulence zone. Commercial traders show signs of stopping defensive selling activities (Short Hedge) and are waiting for higher prices to re-establish their positions, creating a supply gap that helps prices easily sublimate.
Price & Wave Structure: A steep ascending peak–trough sequence confirms the formation of a powerful impulse wave. According to the SMC method, the price has completed the liquidity sweep of the old peak area and is moving in a push to the final target (TP) at 4,212. The current price position is completely above the newly established Demand zones around 3,417. This bullish structure will only be invalidated if the price turns sharply lower and breaks the support level of 3,199, a scenario with extremely low probability in the context of current momentum.
6. Next session's trading scenario
Action: Continue to hold the existing Buy position. Target: 3,800 – 4,000. Stop Loss: Raise Trailing Stop to 3,450. Basis: Marubozu candle momentum and new cash flow ensure continued upward momentum.
Scenario 2 (25%): The price appears a technical correction (Retest) to test the support zone 3,417.
Action: Open another Buy position or buy a new one at area 3,420. Target: 4,212. Stop loss: 3,350. Basic: Re-test the demand force at the structural breakdown zone (BOS) before continuing the upward wave.
7. Recommendations by audience
Manufacturer/importer (Buyer): Implement purchase cost determination (Long Hedge) drastically right at short-term fluctuations. With the current Markup structure, aluminum prices are likely to reach the 4,000 mark very quickly, waiting for cheaper prices can pose a big risk in input costs.
Trade/export (Seller): Absolutely do not establish short positions that block the trend. Patiently wait for the price to approach the target area of 4,212 and clear reversal signals appear on the large frame before considering re-establishing short hedging positions (Short Hedge).
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Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.