Australian ASX 200 SPI futures are testing the key 200DMA after breaking out of the ascending channel they had been trading within since late November. With momentum beginning to swing to the downside, traders should be alert to the risk of a more prolonged unwind ahead. Price action into the close may prove instructive in gauging where near-term directional risks lie.
Should we see a close beneath the 200DMA, shorts could be established with a stop above either the moving average itself or former channel support, depending on the risk-reward profile you’re seeking from the trade. The 8652 level acted as both support and resistance around the turn of the year, putting it firmly on the radar as an initial hurdle for shorts. If price cannot break that level, it may be prudent to nix the trade. More appealing downside targets sit at the December 18 low of 8525, or 8400, where price bounced strongly in 2025.
Alternatively, if price were to recover and close back above channel support, the setup could be flipped. Longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection, targeting a retest of 8925, where price struggled to break several weeks ago.
RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and lower lows and now sits beneath the neutral 50 level, indicating downside pressure is beginning to build. MACD has also crossed below the signal line from above and is trending lower, though it remains in positive territory. It’s not a definitive message from the oscillators by any means, but at the very least it suggests directional risks may be in the early stages of swinging lower.
Good luck!
DS
Should we see a close beneath the 200DMA, shorts could be established with a stop above either the moving average itself or former channel support, depending on the risk-reward profile you’re seeking from the trade. The 8652 level acted as both support and resistance around the turn of the year, putting it firmly on the radar as an initial hurdle for shorts. If price cannot break that level, it may be prudent to nix the trade. More appealing downside targets sit at the December 18 low of 8525, or 8400, where price bounced strongly in 2025.
Alternatively, if price were to recover and close back above channel support, the setup could be flipped. Longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection, targeting a retest of 8925, where price struggled to break several weeks ago.
RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and lower lows and now sits beneath the neutral 50 level, indicating downside pressure is beginning to build. MACD has also crossed below the signal line from above and is trending lower, though it remains in positive territory. It’s not a definitive message from the oscillators by any means, but at the very least it suggests directional risks may be in the early stages of swinging lower.
Good luck!
DS
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Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.