ASML | Weekly Structure | $2,000 Could Unlock Wave 5
Thesis:
ASML is building one of the more interesting weekly structures in the semiconductor space.
After a strong Wave 3 advance, price has spent several months compressing inside what looks like a bullish Wave 4 wedge.
A clean breakout from this structure, followed by a reclaim of the $2,000 area, would put the larger Wave 5 scenario firmly in play for me.
Context
ASML reported Q3 earnings on Wednesday, with record net sales of €11.7B, €5.0B in net income and a 57.5% gross margin.
The company also raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €44B–€45B, while management continues to point to very strong AI-driven demand extending well beyond the current cycle.
The fundamentals remain strong. Now the chart is approaching an important technical decision point.
What I see
- Wave 3 completed around the $2,000 area
- Price is now consolidating inside a bullish Wave 4 wedge
- The 50WMA continues to rise below price
- The previous Wave 3 high also aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci level around $2,002
What matters now
The first thing I want to see is a clean breakout from the wedge.
The stronger confirmation would come if ASML can then break and hold above the $2,000 area.
That would tell me Wave 4 is likely complete and Wave 5 is beginning.
A rejection here would keep the deeper Wave 4 scenario alive, with the rising 50WMA becoming the next major confluence area to watch.
Targets
- Bull Case confirmation: break and hold above the $2,000 area
- Wave 5 target: around $2,800 at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension
Watchlist note
ASML remains one of the strongest semiconductor businesses I follow, but the chart is still at a decision point.
For me, confirmation matters more than anticipating the breakout.
ASML is building one of the more interesting weekly structures in the semiconductor space.
After a strong Wave 3 advance, price has spent several months compressing inside what looks like a bullish Wave 4 wedge.
A clean breakout from this structure, followed by a reclaim of the $2,000 area, would put the larger Wave 5 scenario firmly in play for me.
Context
ASML reported Q3 earnings on Wednesday, with record net sales of €11.7B, €5.0B in net income and a 57.5% gross margin.
The company also raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €44B–€45B, while management continues to point to very strong AI-driven demand extending well beyond the current cycle.
The fundamentals remain strong. Now the chart is approaching an important technical decision point.
What I see
- Wave 3 completed around the $2,000 area
- Price is now consolidating inside a bullish Wave 4 wedge
- The 50WMA continues to rise below price
- The previous Wave 3 high also aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci level around $2,002
What matters now
The first thing I want to see is a clean breakout from the wedge.
The stronger confirmation would come if ASML can then break and hold above the $2,000 area.
That would tell me Wave 4 is likely complete and Wave 5 is beginning.
A rejection here would keep the deeper Wave 4 scenario alive, with the rising 50WMA becoming the next major confluence area to watch.
Targets
- Bull Case confirmation: break and hold above the $2,000 area
- Wave 5 target: around $2,800 at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension
Watchlist note
ASML remains one of the strongest semiconductor businesses I follow, but the chart is still at a decision point.
For me, confirmation matters more than anticipating the breakout.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.