AUD/USD – Waiting for the Pullback Before the Next Bullish Leg?
After rebounding strongly from October lows, AUD/USD is testing the 0.6580–0.6620 supply zone while staying above the key support area at 0.6520–0.6550.
On the macro side, the RBA remains data-dependent after pausing its rate cuts, citing sticky services inflation and resilient labor markets. Meanwhile, the USD has been capped by softer growth data and growing expectations for further Fed easing into early 2026 — a mix that keeps AUD/USD in recovery mode, at least short term.
COT positioning (last valid as of September 23, due to the CFTC shutdown) still reflected heavy speculative shorts on the Aussie — a structure that supported the recent bullish correction but is now outdated.
Retail sentiment shows 77% of traders short, suggesting a strong contrarian upside bias, consistent with the technical picture.
Seasonality data points to a mildly positive bias in October–November, typically followed by neutral behavior in December.
Technical structure:
Price has broken out of the descending channel and is building a short-term higher-low structure.
Support (demand zone): 0.6520–0.6550
Resistance (supply zone): 0.6580–0.6620 → breakout could extend toward 0.6680–0.6720
RSI: mid-range, indicating room for another impulse higher.
🎯 Trading Plan
Base scenario: Look for a pullback into 0.6520–0.6550 to rejoin the bullish leg targeting 0.6680–0.6720.
Alternative: A rejection from 0.6600–0.6620 could trigger a short-term correction toward 0.6500 before buyers return.
Invalidation: Daily close below 0.6475 (loss of structure).
⚙️ Bias: Short-term bullish, medium-term neutral-to-bullish.
🕒 Focus: RBA tone, Chinese PMIs, and U.S. ISM/labor data — all key for the next leg of AUD/USD.
On the macro side, the RBA remains data-dependent after pausing its rate cuts, citing sticky services inflation and resilient labor markets. Meanwhile, the USD has been capped by softer growth data and growing expectations for further Fed easing into early 2026 — a mix that keeps AUD/USD in recovery mode, at least short term.
COT positioning (last valid as of September 23, due to the CFTC shutdown) still reflected heavy speculative shorts on the Aussie — a structure that supported the recent bullish correction but is now outdated.
Retail sentiment shows 77% of traders short, suggesting a strong contrarian upside bias, consistent with the technical picture.
Seasonality data points to a mildly positive bias in October–November, typically followed by neutral behavior in December.
Technical structure:
Price has broken out of the descending channel and is building a short-term higher-low structure.
Support (demand zone): 0.6520–0.6550
Resistance (supply zone): 0.6580–0.6620 → breakout could extend toward 0.6680–0.6720
RSI: mid-range, indicating room for another impulse higher.
🎯 Trading Plan
Base scenario: Look for a pullback into 0.6520–0.6550 to rejoin the bullish leg targeting 0.6680–0.6720.
Alternative: A rejection from 0.6600–0.6620 could trigger a short-term correction toward 0.6500 before buyers return.
Invalidation: Daily close below 0.6475 (loss of structure).
⚙️ Bias: Short-term bullish, medium-term neutral-to-bullish.
🕒 Focus: RBA tone, Chinese PMIs, and U.S. ISM/labor data — all key for the next leg of AUD/USD.
Trade ist aktiv
Pirce reached the first check point. Now waiting for a break over or abover the grey zone on the chart, to evaluate a possible long or short scenario. Patience is always the key
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.