Bitcoin FUD

has pulled back to the 50% Retracement of the April 2025 low to the October 2025 high at 100,300. This could be a Support to hold up the recent down move.

Bitcoiners have requested the best FUD to affirm that this could be "the local bottom". Bottoms are made in fear so it seems they are trying to manifest as much as possible on social media to confirm this will be as low as it will go for now.

The obvious narrative FUD would be something about how the bull phase of the Halvening price cycle ended precisesly when it was predicted to (at 36 months from the November 2022 bottom) and the bear cycle has begun. However, here I think are some even more scary FUDs for post-Halloween:

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Bitcoin for the last decade has been in decline. Bitcoin has been going higher and likely will continue to make higher highs and higher lows into the future BUT at a decreasing rate. Bitcoin's price is following a negative exponential curve. Bitcoin will probably make a higher high at some point in the future, this cycle or the next, but the returns to investors will be far less than have been seen in the past and continue to be even less over time.

A more neutral look at future possibilities is to model historic volatility and project the most probable outcome. The 1 Standard Deviation range from today's price for the next 365 days is between 159,600 and 64,800. That means that there is a 68% probability that Bitcoin will trade within this range over the next year. The FUD is that the lower band matches the Volume Profile node from 2024's consolidation creating support in that zone.

Trade wisely.

Trade ist aktiv

One more element of FUD I forgot...

Perhaps the narrative is not exchange liquidations nor old whales selling but that Bitcoin has become intrinsically correlated with risk assets and equities as it moves in lockstep with US markets at an increased volatility.

Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht

Test #2 of the level... we'll see

norok

"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"

Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
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norok

"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"

Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade

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