BTC is still looking bearish after closing a second weekly candle below the key 98k level. I’m still watching the 70 - 74k zone in December before we see the final rally toward $140K+. This cycle seems extended, with everything delayed by about 3-4 months. Historically, Bitcoin tops in Q4 of the year following the halving, but this time things played out differently, hitting $126k in October 2025 made many people call that the top. Personally, I’m still 50/50, and I have my reasons.
We haven’t seen the true euphoria phase yet. Bitcoin has never topped during fear - especially not maximum fear. QE is beginning, not ending. Interest rates are being cut, not raised. There’s been no major altcoin rally, and the crypto market overall is oversold. More than half the coins are even below their 2022 bear market lows.
This isn’t a prediction — I trade based on probabilities.
BTC recently touched 80k and will likely head back toward the 98–100k pivot area, which used to be strong support and has now turned into key resistance.
From there, I expect another drop into the 70–74k zone.
Once we reach that level and everyone becomes extremely bearish, that’s when market makers will likely push BTC to a new ATH, targeting 140k+ sometime around March/April.
However, if Bitcoin closes above 100k before sweeping liquidity from the 70–74k range, then we may form a lower high and roll into a bear market - meaning we might not get another ATH this cycle.
Let’s see how it plays out… I’m prepared for both scenarios.
We haven’t seen the true euphoria phase yet. Bitcoin has never topped during fear - especially not maximum fear. QE is beginning, not ending. Interest rates are being cut, not raised. There’s been no major altcoin rally, and the crypto market overall is oversold. More than half the coins are even below their 2022 bear market lows.
This isn’t a prediction — I trade based on probabilities.
BTC recently touched 80k and will likely head back toward the 98–100k pivot area, which used to be strong support and has now turned into key resistance.
From there, I expect another drop into the 70–74k zone.
Once we reach that level and everyone becomes extremely bearish, that’s when market makers will likely push BTC to a new ATH, targeting 140k+ sometime around March/April.
However, if Bitcoin closes above 100k before sweeping liquidity from the 70–74k range, then we may form a lower high and roll into a bear market - meaning we might not get another ATH this cycle.
Let’s see how it plays out… I’m prepared for both scenarios.
Trade ist aktiv
No changes in the TA yet.. Will update if key areas broken.Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
Idea is still intact. Pre planning to take these entries when we see a drop. BTC Long Entry Setup
Account Size: $10,000 Leverage: 10× Cross
Entry Structure
* $1,500 margin per entry → $15,000 position size each
* 5 total entries → $75,000 total position value
BTC Accumulation per Entry
Price BTC Amount
$74,000 0.20270 BTC
$73,000 0.20548 BTC
$72,000 0.20833 BTC
$71,000 0.21127 BTC
$70,000 0.21429 BTC
Total BTC Acquired: 1.04207 BTC
Key Levels
* Average Entry Price: $71,972
* Liquidation Price: $62,736
* Stop Loss: $69,950
P&L Estimates
* Loss at SL: $2,107 (Est. 21% of account value)
* Profit at TP ($130,000 BTC): $60,400 (Est. acct will grow 6x)
* RR Ratio: 1 : 28
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.