BTC At $60k: A Critical Level For The Current Cycle
Bitcoin is currently testing what I consider to be one of the most important price zones of the entire cycle: the $60k region.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. Some market participants believe that the correction is nearing its end, while others argue that a deeper reset is still needed before the next major advance can begin.
In this post, I want to look at BTC from three different perspectives:
• Historical price structure around the $60k zone.
• The recent weekly close below the 200W SMA and why I believe the 100W SMA deserves more attention.
• What momentum, through my RSI MA framework, currently suggests.
The goal is not to predict the exact next move.
The goal is to determine whether enough evidence currently exists to conclude that the correction is nearing completion, or whether further downside risk remains.
At the moment, I believe Bitcoin is sitting at a very important decision point.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. The $60k Zone: A Major Historical Pivot Level
Chart:
The first chart highlights what I consider to be one of the most important price zones of the current cycle: the $60k region.
Why is this level so important?
Simply because this was the area where Bitcoin established its previous cycle highs back in 2021.
As the saying goes, markets have memory.
After setting a cycle top around $60k during the previous cycle, BTC initially struggled to break through this region during the current cycle. The zone acted as strong resistance for several months before eventually being reclaimed.
Once reclaimed, resistance turned into support, and the $60k region became the foundation for the next major leg higher.
Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin is once again testing this exact area.
Importantly, price is now approaching the lower boundary of this support zone, meaning that the coming weeks could prove decisive for the medium-term trend.
A decisive breakdown below this region would significantly weaken market structure and could open the door for a move towards the $38k-$50k region, a zone that I discussed extensively in my previous post.
From a risk-reward perspective, this makes the current area one of the most important levels to watch.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. Weekly Trend Analysis: Why The 100W SMA May Matter More
Chart:
Recently, Bitcoin recorded a weekly candle close below the 200-week simple moving average.
This is certainly worth noting.
However, I do not believe that the 200W SMA should be viewed as a strong standalone indicator.
The reason is simple: Bitcoin’s history remains relatively short, meaning that we only have a limited number of observations where price has interacted with the 200W SMA in meaningful ways.
As a result, the statistical significance of this signal is limited.
Nevertheless, the recent close below the 200W SMA does tell us something rather obvious:
The long-term trend has weakened.
That said, as discussed in my previous post, I believe the 100-week SMA deserves considerably more attention.
Historically, the 100W SMA has done a remarkably good job of separating stronger market environments from weaker ones.
During previous bull markets, BTC has generally traded above this moving average, while prolonged periods below it have often coincided with extended corrections or bear market conditions.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade below the 100W SMA.
For me, reclaiming this level would represent a far more meaningful signal than simply reclaiming the 200W SMA.
Until that happens, caution remains warranted.
The framework therefore remains straightforward:
• Trading below the 100W SMA suggests that trend strength remains weak.
• Reclaiming the 100W SMA would significantly improve the macro outlook.
• Failure to reclaim it increases the probability that the correction still requires additional time.
In other words, while the close below the 200W SMA is worth acknowledging, the 100W SMA may ultimately prove to be the more important level to monitor.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. Momentum Analysis: What Does The RSI MA Framework Suggest?
Chart:
The final chart shows my monthly RSI MA framework.
As many of you know, I prefer to analyze momentum on higher timeframes, as it removes much of the short-term noise and provides a cleaner macro perspective.
The good news is that momentum continues to cool.
Historically, periods where the monthly RSI and its moving averages entered deeply depressed territory have often coincided with attractive long-term accumulation opportunities.
The current correction has already reset a significant amount of excess optimism, and momentum conditions continue to improve.
However, the strongest historical buy signals have still not been fully triggered.
In other words, while conditions are becoming increasingly attractive from a long-term perspective, momentum has not yet reached the extreme levels that characterized previous major bottoms.
The message from momentum therefore remains consistent with what price structure currently suggests:
Conditions are improving, but confirmation is still needed.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Final Thoughts
My conclusion is relatively straightforward.
Bitcoin is currently testing one of the most important support zones of the entire cycle.
The $60k region previously acted as the cycle top, later as resistance, and eventually as support. The market’s reaction here will likely determine the next major move.
At the same time, Bitcoin remains below the 100W SMA, suggesting that trend strength has weakened and that caution is still warranted.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators continue to improve, but have not yet fully aligned with the conditions observed at previous macro bottoms.
For now, all eyes should remain on two questions:
Can Bitcoin successfully defend the $60k support zone?
Can Bitcoin reclaim the 100W SMA?
The answers to these two questions will likely tell us a lot about where BTC is heading next.
As always, the goal is not to predict.
The goal is to build a framework and update it as new information becomes available.
Bitcoin is currently testing what I consider to be one of the most important price zones of the entire cycle: the $60k region.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. Some market participants believe that the correction is nearing its end, while others argue that a deeper reset is still needed before the next major advance can begin.
In this post, I want to look at BTC from three different perspectives:
• Historical price structure around the $60k zone.
• The recent weekly close below the 200W SMA and why I believe the 100W SMA deserves more attention.
• What momentum, through my RSI MA framework, currently suggests.
The goal is not to predict the exact next move.
The goal is to determine whether enough evidence currently exists to conclude that the correction is nearing completion, or whether further downside risk remains.
At the moment, I believe Bitcoin is sitting at a very important decision point.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. The $60k Zone: A Major Historical Pivot Level
Chart:
The first chart highlights what I consider to be one of the most important price zones of the current cycle: the $60k region.
Why is this level so important?
Simply because this was the area where Bitcoin established its previous cycle highs back in 2021.
As the saying goes, markets have memory.
After setting a cycle top around $60k during the previous cycle, BTC initially struggled to break through this region during the current cycle. The zone acted as strong resistance for several months before eventually being reclaimed.
Once reclaimed, resistance turned into support, and the $60k region became the foundation for the next major leg higher.
Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin is once again testing this exact area.
Importantly, price is now approaching the lower boundary of this support zone, meaning that the coming weeks could prove decisive for the medium-term trend.
A decisive breakdown below this region would significantly weaken market structure and could open the door for a move towards the $38k-$50k region, a zone that I discussed extensively in my previous post.
From a risk-reward perspective, this makes the current area one of the most important levels to watch.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. Weekly Trend Analysis: Why The 100W SMA May Matter More
Chart:
Recently, Bitcoin recorded a weekly candle close below the 200-week simple moving average.
This is certainly worth noting.
However, I do not believe that the 200W SMA should be viewed as a strong standalone indicator.
The reason is simple: Bitcoin’s history remains relatively short, meaning that we only have a limited number of observations where price has interacted with the 200W SMA in meaningful ways.
As a result, the statistical significance of this signal is limited.
Nevertheless, the recent close below the 200W SMA does tell us something rather obvious:
The long-term trend has weakened.
That said, as discussed in my previous post, I believe the 100-week SMA deserves considerably more attention.
Historically, the 100W SMA has done a remarkably good job of separating stronger market environments from weaker ones.
During previous bull markets, BTC has generally traded above this moving average, while prolonged periods below it have often coincided with extended corrections or bear market conditions.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade below the 100W SMA.
For me, reclaiming this level would represent a far more meaningful signal than simply reclaiming the 200W SMA.
Until that happens, caution remains warranted.
The framework therefore remains straightforward:
• Trading below the 100W SMA suggests that trend strength remains weak.
• Reclaiming the 100W SMA would significantly improve the macro outlook.
• Failure to reclaim it increases the probability that the correction still requires additional time.
In other words, while the close below the 200W SMA is worth acknowledging, the 100W SMA may ultimately prove to be the more important level to monitor.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. Momentum Analysis: What Does The RSI MA Framework Suggest?
Chart:
The final chart shows my monthly RSI MA framework.
As many of you know, I prefer to analyze momentum on higher timeframes, as it removes much of the short-term noise and provides a cleaner macro perspective.
The good news is that momentum continues to cool.
Historically, periods where the monthly RSI and its moving averages entered deeply depressed territory have often coincided with attractive long-term accumulation opportunities.
The current correction has already reset a significant amount of excess optimism, and momentum conditions continue to improve.
However, the strongest historical buy signals have still not been fully triggered.
In other words, while conditions are becoming increasingly attractive from a long-term perspective, momentum has not yet reached the extreme levels that characterized previous major bottoms.
The message from momentum therefore remains consistent with what price structure currently suggests:
Conditions are improving, but confirmation is still needed.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Final Thoughts
My conclusion is relatively straightforward.
Bitcoin is currently testing one of the most important support zones of the entire cycle.
The $60k region previously acted as the cycle top, later as resistance, and eventually as support. The market’s reaction here will likely determine the next major move.
At the same time, Bitcoin remains below the 100W SMA, suggesting that trend strength has weakened and that caution is still warranted.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators continue to improve, but have not yet fully aligned with the conditions observed at previous macro bottoms.
For now, all eyes should remain on two questions:
Can Bitcoin successfully defend the $60k support zone?
Can Bitcoin reclaim the 100W SMA?
The answers to these two questions will likely tell us a lot about where BTC is heading next.
As always, the goal is not to predict.
The goal is to build a framework and update it as new information becomes available.
Trade ist aktiv
BTC Hits new cycle low! $57.7kTrade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
$60K is the line in the sand! Will the bears break it, or will the bulls defend it? The showdown is on!
🔥 Lifetime Premium Access – $99
BTC updates, altcoin setups, key levels, targets & educational posts.
🎖 Free Telegram: t.me/MBM_786kr
📩 To join Premium: DM @MBM786kr on Telegram
BTC updates, altcoin setups, key levels, targets & educational posts.
🎖 Free Telegram: t.me/MBM_786kr
📩 To join Premium: DM @MBM786kr on Telegram
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
🔥 Lifetime Premium Access – $99
BTC updates, altcoin setups, key levels, targets & educational posts.
🎖 Free Telegram: t.me/MBM_786kr
📩 To join Premium: DM @MBM786kr on Telegram
BTC updates, altcoin setups, key levels, targets & educational posts.
🎖 Free Telegram: t.me/MBM_786kr
📩 To join Premium: DM @MBM786kr on Telegram
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.