US equities finished Friday slightly lower, with the S&P 500 falling 0.17%, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.28%, and the Dow losing roughly 108 points. The bigger story was in the economic data.. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July, while July retail sales fell 0.6%, marking their sharpest monthly decline since May 2025
Combined with weaker labor market data earlier this month, the softer readings have eased expectations for an immediate shift toward tighter monetary policy. Fed funds futures now price in roughly a 30% chance of a 25bp rate hike at the September meeting. Inflation, however, remains above the Fed's target, meaning the policy outlook will continue to depend heavily on incoming data
Energy prices remain a major complication. WTI was around $82.40 and Brent near $88.70 early Monday as negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved. Higher oil prices could push headline inflation and inflation expectations higher, making it harder for the Fed to respond to signs of slowing economic activity
BTC Stays in Range, But Momentum Fades
Against this backdrop, BTC continues to move sideways rather than experience a major selloff. Bitcoin is trading slightly above $63K after losing around 3% over the past week, keeping it within the broader range that has defined recent trading
The key point is that BTC has continued to absorb negative macro and geopolitical developments without breaking decisively lower. For now, individual price levels matter less than the overall range. A sustained breakout in either direction would tell us far more about positioning and sentiment than the relatively small moves happening inside the range.
ETH is showing a similar lack of momentum, trading around the $1.9K area in recent sessions Across crypto, the market looks more like one of subdued conviction than outright stress
Volatility Continues to Compress
Options markets are telling a similar story. One-week BTC implied volatility is around 26%, while seven day realized volatility sits closer to 20%.. In other words, options are still pricing in somewhat more movement than Bitcoin has actually delivered recently
That difference represents a positive volatility risk premium, but it does not automatically mean short-volatility trades are attractive. Realized volatility can rise quickly when unexpected macro, geopolitical, or crypto-specific catalysts hit the market.
Overall volatility has declined over the past week as several scheduled catalysts have passed. Congress being in recess also reduces near term legislative risk, although the economic calendar remains fairly busy
Jackson Hole Takes Center Stage
The focus now turns back toward the Federal Reserve. Minutes from the July FOMC meeting are due Wednesday and could provide more insight into the 9-3 decision to keep rates unchanged, particularly the reasoning behind the three officials who favored a hike
Markets will then get July PCE inflation data and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on August 26, followed by the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium from August 27-29. This year's event, centered on “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,” could be especially relevant for both monetary-policy watchers and digital asset markets
For crypto, the setup remains balanced rather than clearly bullish or bearish. Weaker consumer spending and sentiment have reduced some pressure for additional tightening, while elevated oil prices continue to complicate the inflation outlook. At the same time, low realized volatility and rangebound price action suggest neither buyers nor sellers have gained meaningful control.
For now, the range is still holding. BTC has tested it, but it has not broken out
Key Events
19 Aug: FOMC Minutes
26 Aug: US July PCE, Q2 GDP Second Estimate
27–29 Aug: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
15–16 Sep: FOMC Meeting
The range is still holding, but the next few macro catalysts could finally force BTC to pick a direction..Do you think BTC breaks higher from here, or are we heading for another leg lower?
Combined with weaker labor market data earlier this month, the softer readings have eased expectations for an immediate shift toward tighter monetary policy. Fed funds futures now price in roughly a 30% chance of a 25bp rate hike at the September meeting. Inflation, however, remains above the Fed's target, meaning the policy outlook will continue to depend heavily on incoming data
Energy prices remain a major complication. WTI was around $82.40 and Brent near $88.70 early Monday as negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved. Higher oil prices could push headline inflation and inflation expectations higher, making it harder for the Fed to respond to signs of slowing economic activity
BTC Stays in Range, But Momentum Fades
Against this backdrop, BTC continues to move sideways rather than experience a major selloff. Bitcoin is trading slightly above $63K after losing around 3% over the past week, keeping it within the broader range that has defined recent trading
The key point is that BTC has continued to absorb negative macro and geopolitical developments without breaking decisively lower. For now, individual price levels matter less than the overall range. A sustained breakout in either direction would tell us far more about positioning and sentiment than the relatively small moves happening inside the range.
ETH is showing a similar lack of momentum, trading around the $1.9K area in recent sessions Across crypto, the market looks more like one of subdued conviction than outright stress
Volatility Continues to Compress
Options markets are telling a similar story. One-week BTC implied volatility is around 26%, while seven day realized volatility sits closer to 20%.. In other words, options are still pricing in somewhat more movement than Bitcoin has actually delivered recently
That difference represents a positive volatility risk premium, but it does not automatically mean short-volatility trades are attractive. Realized volatility can rise quickly when unexpected macro, geopolitical, or crypto-specific catalysts hit the market.
Overall volatility has declined over the past week as several scheduled catalysts have passed. Congress being in recess also reduces near term legislative risk, although the economic calendar remains fairly busy
Jackson Hole Takes Center Stage
The focus now turns back toward the Federal Reserve. Minutes from the July FOMC meeting are due Wednesday and could provide more insight into the 9-3 decision to keep rates unchanged, particularly the reasoning behind the three officials who favored a hike
Markets will then get July PCE inflation data and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on August 26, followed by the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium from August 27-29. This year's event, centered on “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,” could be especially relevant for both monetary-policy watchers and digital asset markets
For crypto, the setup remains balanced rather than clearly bullish or bearish. Weaker consumer spending and sentiment have reduced some pressure for additional tightening, while elevated oil prices continue to complicate the inflation outlook. At the same time, low realized volatility and rangebound price action suggest neither buyers nor sellers have gained meaningful control.
For now, the range is still holding. BTC has tested it, but it has not broken out
Key Events
19 Aug: FOMC Minutes
26 Aug: US July PCE, Q2 GDP Second Estimate
27–29 Aug: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
15–16 Sep: FOMC Meeting
The range is still holding, but the next few macro catalysts could finally force BTC to pick a direction..Do you think BTC breaks higher from here, or are we heading for another leg lower?
Trade ist aktiv
BTC is underperforming the S&P 500 on 2 out of 3 trading daysHowever, when BTC does outperform, the excess return are significantly larger
Also noteworthy is that these excess returns have been slowly degrading over the years
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
VanEck’s latest report shows that 8 of its 12 tracked Bitcoin market capitulation signals were triggering as of August 12, while all 12 had entered capitulation territory at some point over the past three months. VanEck said Bitcoin’s drawdown from its October 2025 peak has entered its 10th month, suggesting the market may be nearing or already in an accumulation phase; based on historical cycles, a potential turning point could come between September and November.However, historical backtests show that Bitcoin did not generate significant excess returns in the 3–6 months after similar capitulation signals, outperforming the benchmark only over a one-year horizon, with a limited sample size. Over the past 30 days, BTC held for more than one year fell by about 357,000 BTC to 11.84 million BTC, representing 59.1% of circulating supply; meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs recorded about $663 million in net inflows, while 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2%.
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Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.