Technical Analysis:
1️⃣ CCI — around −100; trade confirmation needed: a return to at least 0 followed by another move down
2️⃣ RSI — around 50; ideally needs a push back above 50 and then a break below
3️⃣ Levels:
🔸 Volume block — 71,800 – 70,870
🔸 Extension 1 = 69,500
🔸 Extension 2 = 68,500
🔸 Volume 1 = 68,600
🔸 Volume 2 = 66,940
🔸 Full wave set down from H4 = 66,450
‼️ Key confluences: 1) Volume 1 + Extension 2, and 2) Volume 2 + full wave set down
4️⃣ Higher TF (H4) — potential break of 50 and 200 MAs will be a confirmation of a large wave down
5️⃣ Price move forecast — see chart.
Entry, Stop, Target:
🔸 Entry: Sell. Break below the 200 EMA (green) from above on h1
🔸 Stop: Tentatively above the volume block at 71,800
🔸 Target: Tentatively volume 2 = 66,900
🔸 Risk/Reward: 5.3
🔸 Execution: One week
Cancellation:
🔸 Resumption of negotiations or gradual de-escalation of the conflict
Fundamentals:
Today (April 13) the Strait of Hormuz blockade begins — the key risk driver. Meanwhile, on April 10, ahead of the expected negotiations, institutionals bought 4,614 BTC via ETFs ($334.6M). Whale inflows to Binance dropped below $3B (April 11) — large players have stopped moving coins to exchanges to sell. As long as the Iran conflict remains the dominant narrative and doesn't shift into a slow-burn mode (or end, which is unlikely in the near term), the entire crypto market will stay under pressure. Smart money, as usual, is buying while there is blood is in the streets.
1️⃣ CCI — around −100; trade confirmation needed: a return to at least 0 followed by another move down
2️⃣ RSI — around 50; ideally needs a push back above 50 and then a break below
3️⃣ Levels:
🔸 Volume block — 71,800 – 70,870
🔸 Extension 1 = 69,500
🔸 Extension 2 = 68,500
🔸 Volume 1 = 68,600
🔸 Volume 2 = 66,940
🔸 Full wave set down from H4 = 66,450
‼️ Key confluences: 1) Volume 1 + Extension 2, and 2) Volume 2 + full wave set down
4️⃣ Higher TF (H4) — potential break of 50 and 200 MAs will be a confirmation of a large wave down
5️⃣ Price move forecast — see chart.
Entry, Stop, Target:
🔸 Entry: Sell. Break below the 200 EMA (green) from above on h1
🔸 Stop: Tentatively above the volume block at 71,800
🔸 Target: Tentatively volume 2 = 66,900
🔸 Risk/Reward: 5.3
🔸 Execution: One week
Cancellation:
🔸 Resumption of negotiations or gradual de-escalation of the conflict
Fundamentals:
Today (April 13) the Strait of Hormuz blockade begins — the key risk driver. Meanwhile, on April 10, ahead of the expected negotiations, institutionals bought 4,614 BTC via ETFs ($334.6M). Whale inflows to Binance dropped below $3B (April 11) — large players have stopped moving coins to exchanges to sell. As long as the Iran conflict remains the dominant narrative and doesn't shift into a slow-burn mode (or end, which is unlikely in the near term), the entire crypto market will stay under pressure. Smart money, as usual, is buying while there is blood is in the streets.
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Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.