The Private Sector Isn’t Leveraging for Growth — So Why Are You Buying?
This chart cuts straight to the engine of the bull run in the stock market.
The blue line represents commercial and industrial loans relative to the money supply — a proxy for productive private-sector credit creation.
When it rises, businesses borrow to expand.
When it falls, they don’t.
Right now, "They Don't" it’s falling.
What history shows
A rollover in business credit efficiency precedes every recession:
Credit moves first.
The structural issue
For less productive growth
That’s the law of diminishing returns to credit — and the long-term trend is down.
Why 2020 didn’t fix this
The post-COVID spike was emergency borrowing, not expansion. Once it passed, credit efficiency collapsed to new lows and never recovered.
That’s the tell:
The private sector isn’t willing to leverage for growth.
Why policy can’t save it
When ROI falls, borrowing stops — regardless of policy.
Bottom line
Expansions don’t end when rates rise.
They end when businesses stop borrowing productively.
If the private sector won’t leverage for growth,
Ask yourself what you’re buying.
#FAFO GTFO & STFO!
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in raw truth, not hype.
This chart cuts straight to the engine of the bull run in the stock market.
The blue line represents commercial and industrial loans relative to the money supply — a proxy for productive private-sector credit creation.
When it rises, businesses borrow to expand.
When it falls, they don’t.
Right now, "They Don't" it’s falling.
What history shows
A rollover in business credit efficiency precedes every recession:
- Not GDP.
- Not jobs.
- Not inflation.
Credit moves first.
The structural issue
- Each recovery now requires:
- More money
- More leverage
For less productive growth
That’s the law of diminishing returns to credit — and the long-term trend is down.
Why 2020 didn’t fix this
The post-COVID spike was emergency borrowing, not expansion. Once it passed, credit efficiency collapsed to new lows and never recovered.
That’s the tell:
The private sector isn’t willing to leverage for growth.
Why policy can’t save it
- The Fed can cut rates and add reserves.
- It can’t create profitable opportunities.
When ROI falls, borrowing stops — regardless of policy.
Bottom line
Expansions don’t end when rates rise.
They end when businesses stop borrowing productively.
If the private sector won’t leverage for growth,
Ask yourself what you’re buying.
#FAFO GTFO & STFO!
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in raw truth, not hype.
Real Macro Economic Investing
patreon.com/Realmacro
patreon.com/Realmacro
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Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Real Macro Economic Investing
patreon.com/Realmacro
patreon.com/Realmacro
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.