Thesis:
CRCL is currently going through what I view as a Wave 2 pullback after the initial post-IPO advance. I started building the position in early August and I am now looking to continue adding through this correction. As long as the current structure remains constructive, I see this pullback as part of the normal development of the larger bullish cycle, with approximately $230 as my first major target and the $280-$300 area as the second.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- CRCL is part of my broader long-term thesis around stablecoins, digital assets and the tokenization of finance
- I started building the position in early August with my first entry around $60.70
- I continued adding through August and my current average is approximately $64.50
- Circle is the company behind USDC and is increasingly building infrastructure around institutional onchain finance
- Arc is designed as financial-market infrastructure for payments, settlement and tokenized assets
- Its founding validator group includes institutions such as BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Mastercard, Standard Chartered and Visa
- CRCL fits naturally alongside my existing exposure to BTC, ETH and COIN
What I see
- The first major impulsive move from the lows looks like a Primary Wave 1
- Price is now correcting in what I currently count as Primary Wave 2
- The pullback is moving back through the main Fibonacci retracement levels of the first advance
- The 0.382 Fib sits around $86
- The 0.5 Fib sits around $80
- The 0.618 Fib sits around $75
- This is the type of corrective structure I prefer to use for accumulation rather than chasing price after an impulsive move
- The objective now is for price to establish support and eventually complete Wave 2
What matters now
- The $75-$80 area is the first important support zone I am watching
- A deeper Wave 2 would not automatically invalidate the larger bullish structure
- I want to see the correction remain controlled and eventually develop a clear base
- Once Wave 2 is complete, the next important confirmation will be a move back through the recent highs
- That would strengthen the case that Primary Wave 3 is underway
- Until then, patience matters more than trying to predict the exact bottom
Buy / Accumulation zone
- I started building CRCL in early August with my first entry around $60.70
- I continued adding through the month and my current average is approximately $64.50
- I plan to continue using DCA while the Wave 2 structure remains constructive
- I prefer building during corrections rather than chasing strength
- The current retracement is therefore an area I am watching for further additions
- My horizon for this position is long term and tied to the broader development of stablecoins and tokenized financial infrastructure
Targets
- First support area: approximately $75-$80
- Wave 1 high / breakout area: approximately $110-$120
- Primary Wave 3 target: approximately $230
- 0.786 Fib reference: approximately $233
- Primary Wave 5 target area: approximately $280-$300
- Current 1 Fib reference: approximately $281
Portfolio note
CRCL is not a standalone trade for me.
It is part of a broader investment theme I am already expressing through BTC, ETH and COIN: the gradual migration of financial infrastructure toward regulated digital assets, stablecoins and tokenized markets.
Circle sits directly inside that transition through USDC and, increasingly, through the infrastructure it is building around Arc.
That fundamental thesis is why I am comfortable approaching the chart with a longer time horizon.
I already started building the position near $60.70 and continued accumulating through August. The current correction does not change that thesis for me.
For now, I am treating this as a Wave 2 pullback and looking for opportunities to add gradually while the larger structure remains intact.
If the count develops as expected, approximately $230 is my first major upside target, with the $280-$300 area as the next larger objective.
CRCL is currently going through what I view as a Wave 2 pullback after the initial post-IPO advance. I started building the position in early August and I am now looking to continue adding through this correction. As long as the current structure remains constructive, I see this pullback as part of the normal development of the larger bullish cycle, with approximately $230 as my first major target and the $280-$300 area as the second.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- CRCL is part of my broader long-term thesis around stablecoins, digital assets and the tokenization of finance
- I started building the position in early August with my first entry around $60.70
- I continued adding through August and my current average is approximately $64.50
- Circle is the company behind USDC and is increasingly building infrastructure around institutional onchain finance
- Arc is designed as financial-market infrastructure for payments, settlement and tokenized assets
- Its founding validator group includes institutions such as BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Mastercard, Standard Chartered and Visa
- CRCL fits naturally alongside my existing exposure to BTC, ETH and COIN
What I see
- The first major impulsive move from the lows looks like a Primary Wave 1
- Price is now correcting in what I currently count as Primary Wave 2
- The pullback is moving back through the main Fibonacci retracement levels of the first advance
- The 0.382 Fib sits around $86
- The 0.5 Fib sits around $80
- The 0.618 Fib sits around $75
- This is the type of corrective structure I prefer to use for accumulation rather than chasing price after an impulsive move
- The objective now is for price to establish support and eventually complete Wave 2
What matters now
- The $75-$80 area is the first important support zone I am watching
- A deeper Wave 2 would not automatically invalidate the larger bullish structure
- I want to see the correction remain controlled and eventually develop a clear base
- Once Wave 2 is complete, the next important confirmation will be a move back through the recent highs
- That would strengthen the case that Primary Wave 3 is underway
- Until then, patience matters more than trying to predict the exact bottom
Buy / Accumulation zone
- I started building CRCL in early August with my first entry around $60.70
- I continued adding through the month and my current average is approximately $64.50
- I plan to continue using DCA while the Wave 2 structure remains constructive
- I prefer building during corrections rather than chasing strength
- The current retracement is therefore an area I am watching for further additions
- My horizon for this position is long term and tied to the broader development of stablecoins and tokenized financial infrastructure
Targets
- First support area: approximately $75-$80
- Wave 1 high / breakout area: approximately $110-$120
- Primary Wave 3 target: approximately $230
- 0.786 Fib reference: approximately $233
- Primary Wave 5 target area: approximately $280-$300
- Current 1 Fib reference: approximately $281
Portfolio note
CRCL is not a standalone trade for me.
It is part of a broader investment theme I am already expressing through BTC, ETH and COIN: the gradual migration of financial infrastructure toward regulated digital assets, stablecoins and tokenized markets.
Circle sits directly inside that transition through USDC and, increasingly, through the infrastructure it is building around Arc.
That fundamental thesis is why I am comfortable approaching the chart with a longer time horizon.
I already started building the position near $60.70 and continued accumulating through August. The current correction does not change that thesis for me.
For now, I am treating this as a Wave 2 pullback and looking for opportunities to add gradually while the larger structure remains intact.
If the count develops as expected, approximately $230 is my first major upside target, with the $280-$300 area as the next larger objective.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.