U.S. Dollar Index - Big Picture

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If we’re talking about DXY, it makes sense to take the broadest possible view - specifically starting from 1985.

In February 1985, the index printed a high of 164 and began forming an impulsive move to the downside.
By December 1987, that impulse had been completed.
Everything that followed can be viewed as a correction.

At this stage, the broader correction can be interpreted as an expanded flat:

Snapshot

Following this logic, since March 2008 the index has been in Wave C.
Wave C should unfold as an impulse - and so far, that structure remains intact.
Three waves appear to have formed, and price is currently in Wave 4.

Wave 3 subdivides cleanly into five waves, covering the period from April 2011 to September 2022:

Snapshot

Now the focus shifts to Wave 5 within Wave 3 and its correction.

Snapshot

The correction we are analyzing is a zigzag.
This zigzag signals the completion of the larger Wave 3.

Factors supporting this view:
  • Wave 2 formed a flat, while Wave 4 is unfolding as a zigzag - classic alternation
  • The retracement depth is within the 0.382–0.5 range
  • The impulses are nearly equal in size


Looking deeper, we are currently in the second impulse of the zigzag.

The primary short-term plan is a corrective move within the impulse, with the most likely range at 102-104.
Before that, a pullback toward the 95 area remains possible.

The structure would be invalidated if price drops below 89.

Conclusion

The main direction remains upward - both locally and globally.
The nearest major target lies in the 102-104 range.

Potential move from current levels: ~5-7%

Further upside is expected over time:

Snapshot

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