Euro / Kanadischer Dollar
Short

EURCAD: wedge at the top with bearish divergence

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The EUR/CAD pair has been trading within an ascending channel, but the 4H chart shows a rising wedge pattern, typically a reversal setup. Attempts to sustain above 1.64 have failed so far, while the CCI indicator shows a series of bearish divergences, highlighting weakening bullish momentum.

Technically, the likelihood of a decline after the wedge breakout is high. Initial targets lie at 1.6260, followed by 1.6080, and deeper at 1.5780. A retest of the broken level (re-entry) is possible before the downward move accelerates.

From a fundamental perspective, the euro remains pressured by weak macro data and a cautious ECB, while the Canadian dollar is supported by stable oil prices and a firm Bank of Canada stance. This divergence in fundamentals strengthens the bearish case.

It’s a classic situation where the market tempts traders into expecting a reversal, but confirmation is still required. As always, emotions aside — we wait for clear signals before acting.

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