Price Action & Structure
The current structure shows a corrective rally unfolding within an ascending channel (green dashed lines).
Price action is printing higher highs without fresh momentum, a typical sign of “distribution during a pullback.”
The market is now trading in the upper half of the channel, approaching a daily premium zone just below 1.1700–1.1750.
Daily RSI sits around 60–65, which aligns with an extended pullback, not the beginning of a true bullish trend.
COT Analysis
EUR Futures (CME)
Large speculators are increasing shorts more aggressively than longs → bearish reading on the euro.
Commercials
Commercial traders are adding longs while reducing shorts.
→ This is classic hedging behavior during extended bullish corrections.
USD Index COT
Non-Commercial:
Positioning shows speculators are covering USD longs, but not turning bullish on the euro.
This suggests a temporary squeeze, not a structural trend reversal.
Retail Sentiment
70% SHORT EUR/USD
30% LONG
Retail traders are heavily short and consistently squeezed during upside moves.
This is a classic setup for a fake bullish rally into premium zones, after which larger players typically reverse price.
EUR/USD Seasonality (December)
December is statistically bullish, with average performance between +0.8% and +1.4%.
Seasonal curves show a rise into mid/late December, followed by:
→ a pullback near month-end
→ a bearish setup after January 3rd (typical early-year USD strength)
Thus, the current rally aligns perfectly with seasonality:
December rally → distribution → January drop.
Conclusion
EUR/USD is completing a structural bullish pullback, not forming a new bullish trend.
The move toward 1.1700–1.1750 looks like:
✔️ a liquidity grab
✔️ seasonal pump
✔️ exhaustion before reversal
The current structure shows a corrective rally unfolding within an ascending channel (green dashed lines).
Price action is printing higher highs without fresh momentum, a typical sign of “distribution during a pullback.”
The market is now trading in the upper half of the channel, approaching a daily premium zone just below 1.1700–1.1750.
Daily RSI sits around 60–65, which aligns with an extended pullback, not the beginning of a true bullish trend.
COT Analysis
EUR Futures (CME)
Large speculators are increasing shorts more aggressively than longs → bearish reading on the euro.
Commercials
Commercial traders are adding longs while reducing shorts.
→ This is classic hedging behavior during extended bullish corrections.
USD Index COT
Non-Commercial:
Positioning shows speculators are covering USD longs, but not turning bullish on the euro.
This suggests a temporary squeeze, not a structural trend reversal.
Retail Sentiment
70% SHORT EUR/USD
30% LONG
Retail traders are heavily short and consistently squeezed during upside moves.
This is a classic setup for a fake bullish rally into premium zones, after which larger players typically reverse price.
EUR/USD Seasonality (December)
December is statistically bullish, with average performance between +0.8% and +1.4%.
Seasonal curves show a rise into mid/late December, followed by:
→ a pullback near month-end
→ a bearish setup after January 3rd (typical early-year USD strength)
Thus, the current rally aligns perfectly with seasonality:
December rally → distribution → January drop.
Conclusion
EUR/USD is completing a structural bullish pullback, not forming a new bullish trend.
The move toward 1.1700–1.1750 looks like:
✔️ a liquidity grab
✔️ seasonal pump
✔️ exhaustion before reversal
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.