Euro / US-Dollar
Long
Aktualisiert

DeGRAM | EURUSD formed a bullish takeover

403
📊 Technical Analysis
● A bullish engulfing on the grey 1.135-1.139 demand band reclaimed the inner trend-median and confirmed the base of the rising 2-month channel.
● The pull-back has just retested the broken wedge top (~1.140) as support; pattern height projects a grind to the channel mid-rail / horizontal cluster at 1.1565.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Ahead of the ECB’s expected “one-and-pause” 25 bp cut, EZ core CPI stayed stuck at 2.9 % y/y while soft US job-openings and lower T-bill yields narrowed the 2-yr spread, helping bids return to the euro.

Summary
Long 1.137-1.140; hold above 1.135 seeks 1.156 ➜ 1.160. Invalidate on H4 close < 1.126.

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Snapshot
📊 Technical Analysis
● Price bounced off the rising-channel mid-line and the former wedge roof (≈1.140), printing successive higher lows and keeping the short-term up-trend intact.
● A contracting pennant is forming beneath 1.142; its 1.618 projection coincides with the 1.1565 resistance and channel median, while RSI holds above 50, signalling sustained bullish pressure.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Post-ECB “one-and-pause” cut, sticky EZ core CPI (2.9 % y/y) versus softer US payroll data narrowed the 2-yr yield gap, favouring euro inflows.

Summary
Long 1.137-1.141; pennant break >1.142 targets 1.156 → 1.160. Trend risk flips on an H4 close below 1.126.

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