Euro / US-Dollar
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EUR/USD Eyes Recovery But Struggles Below 1.1620

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Hello everyone,

EUR/USD is showing a delicate rebound on the 4H chart – as if the market is trying to regain balance after the sharp drop in mid-November – yet it lacks the momentum to truly break out. Price keeps oscillating in a narrow range, reacting precisely to FVG zones, indicating that the current move is a deliberate corrective phase rather than the start of a new uptrend.

The green FVG zone at 1.1580–1.1590 remains a key support where buyers persistently defend their position. On the upside, the red FVG around 1.1620 acts as a strong ceiling—each touch triggers selling, capping the recovery.

If EUR/USD fails to close above 1.1620, the likelihood of a retracement to lower FVG zones remains higher, first at 1.1575–1.1580, then 1.1535–1.1550—areas with significant liquidity where the market can restore balance.

Only a decisive break above 1.1620 could open the path to 1.1660 and 1.1700. At present, buying pressure is too weak to create a convincing breakout. Given this context, I continue to prioritise buying at lower zones, using the FVGs below where the probability of a rebound is higher, rather than chasing prices at resistance.
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