Fundamental Market Analysis for December 26, 2025 GBPUSD

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GBP/USD is trading around 1.35150, supported by broad US dollar weakness in a thin market after the Christmas holidays. Market participants continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy: expectations of lower rates in 2026 and uncertainty around the Fed’s next steps keep interest in the dollar subdued.

Fundamentally, the pound looks resilient after the Bank of England’s latest decision to cut the rate to 3.75% on a very close vote. This configuration suggests that further easing will be limited and data-dependent, which supports the yield appeal of UK assets. The market was also helped by updated economic estimates: revised third-quarter growth and improved external income reduced fears of a sharp slowdown.

In the near term, the key factor remains the balance between the pace of inflation cooling in the UK and rate expectations in the US. As long as the market believes a rate cut is more likely in the US than in the UK, the pair retains upside potential. In this environment, preference is for buying the pound against the dollar from current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.35150, SL 1.34950, TP 1.35950

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