The Day Ahead

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Monday, January 5, economic data due:

US December ISM index,
total vehicle sales,
China December services PMI,
UK November net consumer credit,
M4,
Japan's December monetary base

Today’s Trading Summary

Bullish signals

UK credit and money supply showing strength -> may support GBP FX and UK equities.
Chinese PMI prints slightly above the contraction threshold, giving some stability to EM/commodity markets.

Bearish/soft signals

US vehicle sales deceleration + mixed ISM manufacturing expectations -> risk-off tilt if data disappoints.
The Japanese monetary base contraction reinforces the BoJ's tightening narrative, which is supportive for the JPY but potentially negative for risk assets.

Key market drivers to watch today

ISM manufacturing/service prints
US vehicle sales SAAR
China services PMI details
BoJ / JPY reactions around monetary base dynamics

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