Following yesterday's (June 17) hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate decision and dot-plot projection, XAUUSD experienced an aggressive selloff down to a low of $4,219, breaking structure locally before staging a strong intraday rebound during today's Asian and European sessions back up toward the $4,320–$4,330 region.
From an SMC and Supply/Demand perspective, the market is currently presenting a high-probability bearish premium mitigation or short continuation setup, unless a specific structural flip occurs.
1. The Bearish Continuation Setup (Primary Bias)
Premium Supply / Order Block Zone: The key area of interest sits between $4,325 and $4,360. This zone aligns with a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), a bearish Order Block, and key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Invalidation / Structural Shift: $4,360 – $4,370. A daily or sustained 4H close above $4,370 invalidates the bearish bias, completing a bullish Change of Character (ChoCh) and clearing the descending trendline.
Targets (Liquidity Pools): If the price shows lower-timeframe (LTF) rejection or a distribution pattern inside the $4,330–$4,360 zone, the high-probability targets are:
Target 1: Previous Day Low (PDL) / Liquidity Pool at $4,219
Target 2: Major HTF Demand Zone at $4,170
2. The Counter-Trend Bullish Setup (Liquidity Sweep)
Some buyers are actively defending the major higher-timeframe demand zone just below the recent lows.
The Play: If the current upward momentum aggressively breaks and closes above $4,370, it confirms yesterday's drop was a massive liquidity sweep of the lower ranges.
Targets: A structural break above $4,370 shifts the targets immediately upward to $4,470 and $4,520 into the swing-high supply zones.
Risk Note: With massive macroeconomic shifts playing out this week, volatility remains highly expanded. If entering the premium supply zone, look for a clean LTF market structure shift (MSS) on the 5-minute chart before executing to keep stops tight.
From an SMC and Supply/Demand perspective, the market is currently presenting a high-probability bearish premium mitigation or short continuation setup, unless a specific structural flip occurs.
1. The Bearish Continuation Setup (Primary Bias)
Premium Supply / Order Block Zone: The key area of interest sits between $4,325 and $4,360. This zone aligns with a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), a bearish Order Block, and key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Invalidation / Structural Shift: $4,360 – $4,370. A daily or sustained 4H close above $4,370 invalidates the bearish bias, completing a bullish Change of Character (ChoCh) and clearing the descending trendline.
Targets (Liquidity Pools): If the price shows lower-timeframe (LTF) rejection or a distribution pattern inside the $4,330–$4,360 zone, the high-probability targets are:
Target 1: Previous Day Low (PDL) / Liquidity Pool at $4,219
Target 2: Major HTF Demand Zone at $4,170
2. The Counter-Trend Bullish Setup (Liquidity Sweep)
Some buyers are actively defending the major higher-timeframe demand zone just below the recent lows.
The Play: If the current upward momentum aggressively breaks and closes above $4,370, it confirms yesterday's drop was a massive liquidity sweep of the lower ranges.
Targets: A structural break above $4,370 shifts the targets immediately upward to $4,470 and $4,520 into the swing-high supply zones.
Risk Note: With massive macroeconomic shifts playing out this week, volatility remains highly expanded. If entering the premium supply zone, look for a clean LTF market structure shift (MSS) on the 5-minute chart before executing to keep stops tight.
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Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.