This is a good setup for a mid-term move. I already have a solid entry around the 600 area.
As I explained on the chart, price tested the AVWAP anchored from the previous local high multiple times.
If you’ve read my previous posts, this is one of the core ideas in my framework:
Multiple tests can indicate progressive absorption.
Repeated testing alone is not enough, but the valid breakout on expanding volume helps confirm that the absorption process was real.
META is still trading inside a large 540–690 range.
Until price breaks out of this range with real momentum and acceptance, I still treat it as a range-bound structure.
Within the current lower-liquidity area, price has room to travel from boundary to boundary, carrying momentum from the 600–620 zone.
META is relatively undervalued and under-positioned within the Mag 7, which gives it a better cushion if broader market conditions deteriorate.
That doesn’t make it immune to market weakness, but relative positioning matters when capital starts rotating.
The Main Unknown: Broad Market Risk
The biggest uncertainty here is not META itself — it’s the overall market environment.
We have several potential risks ahead:
FOMC coming in roughly two weeks
Hot NFP report
Inflation risk still unresolved
Any of these could slow or stagger the move even if META’s individual structure remains constructive.
If you’re looking to trade this setup, I would give it enough time to develop.
For me, that means either:
Shares, or
Longer-dated options with at least ~3 months of duration
This is not the kind of setup I’d want to force with very short-dated contracts.
- Structure
As I explained on the chart, price tested the AVWAP anchored from the previous local high multiple times.
If you’ve read my previous posts, this is one of the core ideas in my framework:
Multiple tests can indicate progressive absorption.
Repeated testing alone is not enough, but the valid breakout on expanding volume helps confirm that the absorption process was real.
- Bigger Range Still Matters
META is still trading inside a large 540–690 range.
Until price breaks out of this range with real momentum and acceptance, I still treat it as a range-bound structure.
Within the current lower-liquidity area, price has room to travel from boundary to boundary, carrying momentum from the 600–620 zone.
- Relative Positioning
META is relatively undervalued and under-positioned within the Mag 7, which gives it a better cushion if broader market conditions deteriorate.
That doesn’t make it immune to market weakness, but relative positioning matters when capital starts rotating.
The Main Unknown: Broad Market Risk
The biggest uncertainty here is not META itself — it’s the overall market environment.
We have several potential risks ahead:
FOMC coming in roughly two weeks
Hot NFP report
Inflation risk still unresolved
Any of these could slow or stagger the move even if META’s individual structure remains constructive.
- Positioning
If you’re looking to trade this setup, I would give it enough time to develop.
For me, that means either:
Shares, or
Longer-dated options with at least ~3 months of duration
This is not the kind of setup I’d want to force with very short-dated contracts.
Trade ist aktiv
Previously entered around the 600 level, and I have 6+ months just to be safe. This is not a quick short-term trade, especially with the uncertainty around the upcoming FOMC and ongoing inflation risk. Short-term volatility could easily disrupt the move, so the position needs enough time to absorb that noise.Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
Closed all positions this morning at 658. 
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Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.