Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. Very tough spot but if I had to be in the market I would probably be long. 3 Higher lows now but bulls were too weak to close above the daily 20ema. I will wait and see how the tariff news play out. Only below 24440 bears could print new lows and on the other side bulls will likely get confident above 25200.
current market cycle: trading range since November
key levels for next week: 24000 - 25400 (above 25400 opens up to 26300 again)
bull case: Bulls printing higher lows but are still below the daily 20ema. They have made money buying below 25000 since 2025-09. That’s 5 months of BTFD on the same level and they have not been trapped once. These levels are very hard to break and only a big change in narrative/risk could do so. Is one on the horizon? Meh. New tariffs? Like bulls gave a duck the past 53209349213 headlines about this excrement. Bulls are likely much more confident in buying low here than bears about breaking lower.
Invalidation is below 24153
bear case: Meh is probably the only right answer here. What do bears really have going for them? Staying below the daily 20ema. Woo ducking hoo. 3 consecutive higher lows but we can still draw a decent bear trend line. So the only chance they have is like a huge surprise on Monday where we gap down and stay down. If this goes one tick above 25100, bulls are heavily favored.
Invalidation is above 25100
short term: Neutral. Big gap down and going below 24700 would make me turn somewhat bearish in hopes of a breakdown but anything above 25100 is very bullish.
medium-long term - Update from 2026-02-08: For now neutral for the next months until we print meaningful lower lows or reach 27000.
comment: Neutral. Very tough spot but if I had to be in the market I would probably be long. 3 Higher lows now but bulls were too weak to close above the daily 20ema. I will wait and see how the tariff news play out. Only below 24440 bears could print new lows and on the other side bulls will likely get confident above 25200.
current market cycle: trading range since November
key levels for next week: 24000 - 25400 (above 25400 opens up to 26300 again)
bull case: Bulls printing higher lows but are still below the daily 20ema. They have made money buying below 25000 since 2025-09. That’s 5 months of BTFD on the same level and they have not been trapped once. These levels are very hard to break and only a big change in narrative/risk could do so. Is one on the horizon? Meh. New tariffs? Like bulls gave a duck the past 53209349213 headlines about this excrement. Bulls are likely much more confident in buying low here than bears about breaking lower.
Invalidation is below 24153
bear case: Meh is probably the only right answer here. What do bears really have going for them? Staying below the daily 20ema. Woo ducking hoo. 3 consecutive higher lows but we can still draw a decent bear trend line. So the only chance they have is like a huge surprise on Monday where we gap down and stay down. If this goes one tick above 25100, bulls are heavily favored.
Invalidation is above 25100
short term: Neutral. Big gap down and going below 24700 would make me turn somewhat bearish in hopes of a breakdown but anything above 25100 is very bullish.
medium-long term - Update from 2026-02-08: For now neutral for the next months until we print meaningful lower lows or reach 27000.
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Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.