Setup: MU has staged a parabolic move on the 4h — from the April low near 310 to current ~810, with the most explosive leg launching on May 5 open gap (~610 to ~650) and again on May 8 (+~7% gap) and May 11 (+~6% gap). On the 1h, price opened today at 793 and ripped to 818 intraday before pulling back to current ~809, sitting just above the prior 800 psychological/resistance-turned-support shelf. The structure of higher lows is intact. Volume on today's up move was the heaviest in two weeks, confirming institutional participation. The nearest structural demand is the 790-800 zone — the overnight breakout shelf — with the prior session close at 746 creating a gap that has not been revisited.
Flow: Options flow is dominated by 800C trades across May 15 and May 22 expiries, with multiple large ask-side buys (bullish) totaling well over $30M in call premium. The 800C 5/22 alone traded >29k contracts with heavy ask-side activity. A large SellToOpen on the 650P 5/22 (6.4M premium, bullish skew) adds further confirmation. Analyst upgrades from DA Davidson and Deutsche Bank citing AI memory demand are fresh catalysts. Insider selling is a headwind but is structurally common at these price levels; the analyst upgrade cycle and options positioning override that as a near-term directional signal. Net call/put premium ratio is ~3.3x calls, strongly skewed long despite bearish trade count slightly exceeding bullish — the premium size of bullish trades dominates.
Plan: Stop is placed below the 770 level — a violation there would fill the upper portion of the May 8 gap and break the sequence of higher lows on the 1h, invalidating the continuation thesis. Target is the 850 area, the next natural resistance cluster above and roughly the 1.5x ATR extension from current. A break above today's intraday high of 818 with volume would accelerate toward that target. A failure to hold 790 on a closing 1h basis is the first warning; 770 is full thesis invalidation.
📍 Entry: 790.00
🛑 Stop: 768.00
🎯 Target: 850.00
⚖️ R:R: 2.73
Flow: Options flow is dominated by 800C trades across May 15 and May 22 expiries, with multiple large ask-side buys (bullish) totaling well over $30M in call premium. The 800C 5/22 alone traded >29k contracts with heavy ask-side activity. A large SellToOpen on the 650P 5/22 (6.4M premium, bullish skew) adds further confirmation. Analyst upgrades from DA Davidson and Deutsche Bank citing AI memory demand are fresh catalysts. Insider selling is a headwind but is structurally common at these price levels; the analyst upgrade cycle and options positioning override that as a near-term directional signal. Net call/put premium ratio is ~3.3x calls, strongly skewed long despite bearish trade count slightly exceeding bullish — the premium size of bullish trades dominates.
Plan: Stop is placed below the 770 level — a violation there would fill the upper portion of the May 8 gap and break the sequence of higher lows on the 1h, invalidating the continuation thesis. Target is the 850 area, the next natural resistance cluster above and roughly the 1.5x ATR extension from current. A break above today's intraday high of 818 with volume would accelerate toward that target. A failure to hold 790 on a closing 1h basis is the first warning; 770 is full thesis invalidation.
📍 Entry: 790.00
🛑 Stop: 768.00
🎯 Target: 850.00
⚖️ R:R: 2.73
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
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monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.