Oklo aims to develop small nuclear power plants and sell electricity under long-term power purchase agreements. The equity is priced ahead of the business: there is no operating revenue before first plant is online.
Business model:
- Revenue is expected to come from selling power under multi-year contracts.
- Key near-term work is design, approvals and site preparation; any slippage extends the cash runway.
Market-implied expectations (at today’s ~$20bn EV):
- On-time delivery of first operating sites by 2027.
- Rapid scale-up thereafter with stable output and healthy GAAP margins under long-dated contracts.
- Limited shareholder dilution.
In short, at today’s valuation the market is paying now for years of smooth execution before the business produces revenue.
Our base-case DCF model (GAAP net income based): equity value ≈ $1.76bn ($11.90/share), compared to a current price of $144/share. The shares screen materially overvalued on fundamentals.
Technicals:
Oklo has reached a key Fib level, where it might start reversing on slowing momentum. Entered a short at $142.
Business model:
- Revenue is expected to come from selling power under multi-year contracts.
- Key near-term work is design, approvals and site preparation; any slippage extends the cash runway.
Market-implied expectations (at today’s ~$20bn EV):
- On-time delivery of first operating sites by 2027.
- Rapid scale-up thereafter with stable output and healthy GAAP margins under long-dated contracts.
- Limited shareholder dilution.
In short, at today’s valuation the market is paying now for years of smooth execution before the business produces revenue.
Our base-case DCF model (GAAP net income based): equity value ≈ $1.76bn ($11.90/share), compared to a current price of $144/share. The shares screen materially overvalued on fundamentals.
Technicals:
Oklo has reached a key Fib level, where it might start reversing on slowing momentum. Entered a short at $142.
Trade ist aktiv
If momentum continues, will close trade above $145 and wait for re-entry at the next Fib level up.Anmerkung
Recent news of Oklo potentially expecting revenue by mid-2026 may be alarming, but in fact this revenue will most likely be solely from pilot revenue of a few million, whereas real revenue from the core business is only expected in 2027, if not late 2027 or even 2028, as historically almost every nuclear project in the USA has encountered delays. Even companies with more resources (e.g. NuScale 
SMR) have had delays.Looking to potentially increase the short position if it goes back to $142.
Anmerkung
Increased short position and moved stop loss up further, above the next Fib level ($166).Anmerkung
Further update: moved stop loss to $200 and holding for now. If it does break out then will abandon this position, however it seems that momentum may be reversing.Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
Profit taken on most of the position at $120, looking to short more if it goes back up.
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Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.