Why is a company growing production by 30% YoY trading at a 0.23 P/S ratio?
For years, the market treated OPAL as just another "green fuel" RNG play dependent on the volatile price of RIN (Renewable Identification Number) credits. When RIN prices crashed from $3.13 to $2.15 in late 2025, investors fled. But while the price consolidated at a $2.00 floor, something changed.
Deconstructing the business model and I found a "Double Multiplier" coming in 2026:
- Volume Growth: The startup of Atlantic RNG, Burlington, and Cottonwood projects adds millions of MMBtu in net capacity to a capacity that already grew 30% YOY in 2025.
- Margin Expansion: The shift to Section 45Z credits (recently extended through 2029 via the OBBBA) transforms RNG from a commodity into a high-margin premium product - potentially adding 20-30 million in EBITDA.
- For a stock that was briefly hammered after earnings but recovered quickly once everyone realized that while revenue was down because of the RIN volatility, production was up and a wait and see as a result of those RIN prices was needed.
But with the new credits adding a higher revenue floor with less volatilty, combined with the credit being able to be earned on a larger production capacity too, you start to get the idea.
Then looking at the chart, there was a large candle on Dec. 30th. Originally, perhaps some tax harvesting or something similar I thought. Nope!
- Invesco Ltd.: On January 8, 2026, they disclosed an 18.0% stake (5.2M shares). A massive 77% increase from their prior position. Holy shit!
- Ares Management & NextEra: With 10.5% and 7.4% respectively, we aren't looking at passive investors, we got infrastructure experts.
- Both Co-CEOs have been active buyers in the $2.30–$2.70 range. There has been zero insider selling in the face of 2025’s volatility.
I can add a bull case involving RNG and data center if I wanted to stretch it further, involving the PJM, new projects near data center study requests, etc. for a long hold, but another day perhaps. Let's see this first move.
Lastly, if you like technicals, we have it just recently reclaiming the 200 EMA, my proprietary indicator just had a buy signal appear on Wednesday, and on the weekly chart there is a TTM squeeze as you can see by the chart visual.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. This represents a deep dive research project based on public filings and technical analysis.
For years, the market treated OPAL as just another "green fuel" RNG play dependent on the volatile price of RIN (Renewable Identification Number) credits. When RIN prices crashed from $3.13 to $2.15 in late 2025, investors fled. But while the price consolidated at a $2.00 floor, something changed.
Deconstructing the business model and I found a "Double Multiplier" coming in 2026:
- Volume Growth: The startup of Atlantic RNG, Burlington, and Cottonwood projects adds millions of MMBtu in net capacity to a capacity that already grew 30% YOY in 2025.
- Margin Expansion: The shift to Section 45Z credits (recently extended through 2029 via the OBBBA) transforms RNG from a commodity into a high-margin premium product - potentially adding 20-30 million in EBITDA.
- For a stock that was briefly hammered after earnings but recovered quickly once everyone realized that while revenue was down because of the RIN volatility, production was up and a wait and see as a result of those RIN prices was needed.
But with the new credits adding a higher revenue floor with less volatilty, combined with the credit being able to be earned on a larger production capacity too, you start to get the idea.
Then looking at the chart, there was a large candle on Dec. 30th. Originally, perhaps some tax harvesting or something similar I thought. Nope!
- Invesco Ltd.: On January 8, 2026, they disclosed an 18.0% stake (5.2M shares). A massive 77% increase from their prior position. Holy shit!
- Ares Management & NextEra: With 10.5% and 7.4% respectively, we aren't looking at passive investors, we got infrastructure experts.
- Both Co-CEOs have been active buyers in the $2.30–$2.70 range. There has been zero insider selling in the face of 2025’s volatility.
I can add a bull case involving RNG and data center if I wanted to stretch it further, involving the PJM, new projects near data center study requests, etc. for a long hold, but another day perhaps. Let's see this first move.
Lastly, if you like technicals, we have it just recently reclaiming the 200 EMA, my proprietary indicator just had a buy signal appear on Wednesday, and on the weekly chart there is a TTM squeeze as you can see by the chart visual.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. This represents a deep dive research project based on public filings and technical analysis.
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Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.