L’Oréal accelerates for Gucci Beauty and reignites the battle for luxury
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
L’Oréal wants to move ahead of the calendar. The French group has acknowledged that it is holding discussions with Kering and Coty in an attempt to assume, before 2028, the Gucci beauty license, currently in the hands of the U.S. company.
The move is not minor. The license was one of the strategic pillars of the agreement signed following the sale of Creed for around €4 billion. Now, L’Oréal seeks to take early control of an asset it considers key to strengthening its luxury division.
Coty, which holds the contract until 2028, has not made official comments regarding a possible early transfer. However, its new CEO has stated that he will consider any transaction that generates value for shareholders, leaving the door open to negotiation if the price proves attractive.
A strategic opportunity
Gucci is one of the most recognized brands in the luxury sector, but its beauty business has not reached the same level of development as its fashion and accessories division. For L’Oréal, this is where the opportunity lies: applying its industrial structure, global distribution network, and premium marketing expertise to drive growth in the segment.
In an increasingly competitive and mature beauty market in Europe and the United States, large multinationals are seeking assets with high profitability potential and capacity for international expansion. Gucci Beauty fits that profile.
Fundamental Analysis
From a financial standpoint, L’Oréal starts from a position of strength. The group maintains:
Solid operating margins within the sector.
Strong cash generation.
Controlled indebtedness.
Geographic and category diversification.
An early integration of Gucci Beauty could strengthen the L’Oréal Luxe division and improve the product mix toward higher-margin segments. If structured efficiently, the transaction could have a positive impact on earnings per share in the medium term.
For Coty, the scenario is different. The Gucci license represents a relevant asset within its portfolio. An early exit would require revising forecasts, although adequate financial compensation could ease balance sheet pressure and strengthen its financial position.
Kering, for its part, maintains a strategy of monetizing assets without assuming direct operational risk, relying on industrial partners to maximize the value of its brands.
Technical Analysis – L’Oréal (EPA: OR)
From a technical standpoint, L’Oréal maintains a long-term bullish structure, although the price has been developing a consolidation phase in the highs area for several months.
One of the most relevant levels is the Point of Control (POC) located around €374, an area that has acted as the zone of highest trading activity since April of last year and continues to function as a key reference of balance between supply and demand.
In recent weeks, the stock has corrected from highs, moving below the 50-session moving average (currently at €386.20) and fluctuating near the 100-session moving average, with a recent close around €372.35. This behavior suggests a technical adjustment phase rather than structural deterioration.
Regarding indicators:
The RSI retreated toward levels close to 40%, approaching technical oversold territory, which reduces immediate downside pressure.
The MACD has confirmed a short-term bearish crossover, signaling a temporary loss of momentum, although still within a context of positive primary trend.
Key levels to monitor:
Main resistance: €400–410, recent historical highs (€408.35).
First dynamic support: 100-session moving average around €380.75.
Relevant structural support: €360 area.
Control level (POC): €374.
As long as the price remains above the €360–374 area, the underlying structure will continue to be constructive. A potential confirmation of an early agreement regarding Gucci Beauty could act as a catalyst and favor a renewed push toward historical highs.
In technical terms, the current scenario reflects consolidation within trend, not a cycle change.
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator shows an increase in RiskOn sentiment but remains in neutral/mixed territory, suggesting that upward evolution could continue for the moment.
Coty (NYSE: COTY)
The technical behavior is more lateral and sensitive to corporate news.
Resistance around $13–14.
Relevant support in the $10 area.
A negative outcome regarding the license could generate downside pressure, while favorable compensation could stabilize the stock.
Conclusion
The negotiation over Gucci Beauty reflects growing competition in the luxury segment and the interest of large multinationals in reinforcing their strategic positioning.
L’Oréal seeks to move ahead of the contractual expiration and consolidate its global leadership in premium beauty. The market will closely follow the discussions. In an environment where scale and brand make the difference, every strategic move counts.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
L’Oréal wants to move ahead of the calendar. The French group has acknowledged that it is holding discussions with Kering and Coty in an attempt to assume, before 2028, the Gucci beauty license, currently in the hands of the U.S. company.
The move is not minor. The license was one of the strategic pillars of the agreement signed following the sale of Creed for around €4 billion. Now, L’Oréal seeks to take early control of an asset it considers key to strengthening its luxury division.
Coty, which holds the contract until 2028, has not made official comments regarding a possible early transfer. However, its new CEO has stated that he will consider any transaction that generates value for shareholders, leaving the door open to negotiation if the price proves attractive.
A strategic opportunity
Gucci is one of the most recognized brands in the luxury sector, but its beauty business has not reached the same level of development as its fashion and accessories division. For L’Oréal, this is where the opportunity lies: applying its industrial structure, global distribution network, and premium marketing expertise to drive growth in the segment.
In an increasingly competitive and mature beauty market in Europe and the United States, large multinationals are seeking assets with high profitability potential and capacity for international expansion. Gucci Beauty fits that profile.
Fundamental Analysis
From a financial standpoint, L’Oréal starts from a position of strength. The group maintains:
Solid operating margins within the sector.
Strong cash generation.
Controlled indebtedness.
Geographic and category diversification.
An early integration of Gucci Beauty could strengthen the L’Oréal Luxe division and improve the product mix toward higher-margin segments. If structured efficiently, the transaction could have a positive impact on earnings per share in the medium term.
For Coty, the scenario is different. The Gucci license represents a relevant asset within its portfolio. An early exit would require revising forecasts, although adequate financial compensation could ease balance sheet pressure and strengthen its financial position.
Kering, for its part, maintains a strategy of monetizing assets without assuming direct operational risk, relying on industrial partners to maximize the value of its brands.
Technical Analysis – L’Oréal (EPA: OR)
From a technical standpoint, L’Oréal maintains a long-term bullish structure, although the price has been developing a consolidation phase in the highs area for several months.
One of the most relevant levels is the Point of Control (POC) located around €374, an area that has acted as the zone of highest trading activity since April of last year and continues to function as a key reference of balance between supply and demand.
In recent weeks, the stock has corrected from highs, moving below the 50-session moving average (currently at €386.20) and fluctuating near the 100-session moving average, with a recent close around €372.35. This behavior suggests a technical adjustment phase rather than structural deterioration.
Regarding indicators:
The RSI retreated toward levels close to 40%, approaching technical oversold territory, which reduces immediate downside pressure.
The MACD has confirmed a short-term bearish crossover, signaling a temporary loss of momentum, although still within a context of positive primary trend.
Key levels to monitor:
Main resistance: €400–410, recent historical highs (€408.35).
First dynamic support: 100-session moving average around €380.75.
Relevant structural support: €360 area.
Control level (POC): €374.
As long as the price remains above the €360–374 area, the underlying structure will continue to be constructive. A potential confirmation of an early agreement regarding Gucci Beauty could act as a catalyst and favor a renewed push toward historical highs.
In technical terms, the current scenario reflects consolidation within trend, not a cycle change.
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator shows an increase in RiskOn sentiment but remains in neutral/mixed territory, suggesting that upward evolution could continue for the moment.
Coty (NYSE: COTY)
The technical behavior is more lateral and sensitive to corporate news.
Resistance around $13–14.
Relevant support in the $10 area.
A negative outcome regarding the license could generate downside pressure, while favorable compensation could stabilize the stock.
Conclusion
The negotiation over Gucci Beauty reflects growing competition in the luxury segment and the interest of large multinationals in reinforcing their strategic positioning.
L’Oréal seeks to move ahead of the contractual expiration and consolidate its global leadership in premium beauty. The market will closely follow the discussions. In an environment where scale and brand make the difference, every strategic move counts.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
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Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.