SMCI has held $29 support fairly well over the last couple weeks - and has been dragged down with other "AI" and general "tech" related names over the last 6 months.Looking at this stock's history in the months of Jan and Feb (average +11% return in each month), I'm looking for a bullish run into early Feb earnings. Potential brief downside: Looking at the chart, if we get a bad day in the overall markets, I could see this flash drop to $27 ish through support over the next couple weeks, flushing out retail even more, but I think it'd recover super quickly.
With the heavy short interest, I could see a relatively methodical +10-15% move up from here to about $35 (roughly $30 now as I type) into earnings. From there, I could see an additional 20% pop to $42 (similar to Celsius last year this time), followed by some overall slower, bullish chop upwards into May/June. There is a chance it way overshoots to the upside (similar to other melt-ups in this stock's history), but if it were to overshoot, I would actually expect that to happen later this year.
Also, fundamentally speaking, there is a lot of talk about how this stock is "cheap" and how revenue is greatly expected to increase. FWIW, I think it's slightly undervalued, but not "cheap". For me, this is a trade, not an investment idea.
- GLTA, as always, this is not financial advice!
- C
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