b]Fundamentals:
1️⃣ Macro and Geopolitics. The Fear Index is at 25 - still scary, but not too bad. Trump's tariffs (15% global + 35% China + 25% Iran's partners) are putting pressure on all risky assets. SOL correlates with BTC and is declining in tandem. Negative.
2️⃣ Fed Rate. I've discussed the rate many times in other reviews. The FOMC meeting is on March 17-18. Currently, it remains at 3.50-3.75% - the market estimates a 96% probability. Neutral for now.
3️⃣ SOL ETF flows. Despite a 57% price drop, approximately $1.45 billion has flowed into the SOL ETF (through early March). 30 institutions hold ~$540 million in the SOL ETF (Goldman Sachs, Electric Capital). The Bitwise BSOL ETF absorbed 78% of all inflows. However, outflows from the ETF began on March 6th and continue. Positive in the medium term, neutral in the short term.
4️⃣ On-chain and network activity. Cons: Daily network revenue has fallen 79% from the January peak. DEX volume has fallen from $35.9 billion per day (January 21st) to ~$1 billion (a 96% decline!). Active addresses are at 2.8 million. Returning users are down to -15.3% (March 4th number). Pros: TVL (Total Volume Locked) has recovered to $9 billion after the Q4 decline. TVL in Defi is at all-time highs - 80.27 million. Stablecoins on Solana are absorb $15.65 billion, indicating capital confidence. This could be seen as a short-term negative, but structurally, everything is fine.
5️⃣ The decline of interest in memecoins is the main blow to SOL. Pump.fun (a memecoin launchpad) lost 75% of its trading volume. In 2025, almost half of Solana's fees came from memecoin trading. Token creation fell to 20-30K/day. However, trading is shifting from memecoins to stablecoin pairs on SOL. The negative is momentary, but neutral in the long term.
6️⃣ Whale accumulation. Large wallets regularly buy SOL in batches of 10+ transactions. Overall, whale interest in buying remains. During price declines, this can historically be an accumulation pattern. Neutral at the moment, positive in the medium term.
7️⃣ Tokenomics and inflation. SOL inflation is ~4%, declining by 15% annually (target: 1.5%). Early investor and team unlocks by 2026 are mostly complete, reducing selling pressure. ~50% of SOL is staked, reducing supply. Positive, but more likely in the medium term.
8️⃣ RWA and institutional investors. Solana's RWA TVL exceeded $1.3 billion. WisdomTree launched tokenized funds. Solana Company and Anchorage Digital launched institutional borrowing secured by staked SOL. Ripple Prime opened institutional access to SOL futures through Coinbase Derivatives (March 5). Positive, but also in medium-term.
👉🏻 Conclusion 👈🏻: SOLUSDT is under significant pressure in the short term – fear (25/100), Trump with tariffs, pressure on risky assets due to the Iran war, the collapse of the memcoin economy, the number of active addresses has fallen, and ETF outflows are rife. But the medium-term picture looks good: whales are accumulating, TVL is strong, there are a decent number of stablecoins, unlocks are ending, and inflation is declining. Important near-term points of interest: FOMC on March 18 and the possible launch of Alpenglow (no date yet, network update). So, the average forecast is neutral. For now, geopolitics is the main pressure; if there is a resolution of any kind, SOL could skyrocket very quickly.
Technical Analysis:
1️⃣СCI – heading towards -100. With the current price configuration, a sharp move below 0 is likely – confirmation of entry.
2️⃣RSI - in the middle of the neutral zone. Often, as a wave develops, a crossover through the middle and a further move to the extreme levels confirms the direction. I expect a move towards 30.
3️⃣VPVR zones - increased volume at 90.2, 85.19, 79.04
4️⃣Fib - The 61.8% Fib level is mainly important as a potential stop and key level for executing the trade
5️⃣Moving Average Crossovers/Breakthroughs - a downward breakout of the 200 EMA confirms the trade
6️⃣Larger TF (h4) - Approximately the middle of the flat (often a reversal zone in a flat) + a breakout of the 50 and 20 EMAs confirms the trade.
Entry, Stop, Take Profit:
🔸Entry: Sell. Breakout of 85.37 from top to bottom.
🔸Stop: 88.67 = 61.8% Fibonacci
🔸Take: TP = 77.75 = first extension for the previous h1 wave
🔸Risk/Reward: 2.28 for TP. However, if there's a significant decline, you can safely move the trade to 87.02 or to the entry level. Due to the chart situation, the risk is well-managed.
🔸Execution: By the end of the week.
Cancellation
🔸Upward breakout of 61.8% Fibonacci. The trade will need to be reconsidered.
1️⃣ Macro and Geopolitics. The Fear Index is at 25 - still scary, but not too bad. Trump's tariffs (15% global + 35% China + 25% Iran's partners) are putting pressure on all risky assets. SOL correlates with BTC and is declining in tandem. Negative.
2️⃣ Fed Rate. I've discussed the rate many times in other reviews. The FOMC meeting is on March 17-18. Currently, it remains at 3.50-3.75% - the market estimates a 96% probability. Neutral for now.
3️⃣ SOL ETF flows. Despite a 57% price drop, approximately $1.45 billion has flowed into the SOL ETF (through early March). 30 institutions hold ~$540 million in the SOL ETF (Goldman Sachs, Electric Capital). The Bitwise BSOL ETF absorbed 78% of all inflows. However, outflows from the ETF began on March 6th and continue. Positive in the medium term, neutral in the short term.
4️⃣ On-chain and network activity. Cons: Daily network revenue has fallen 79% from the January peak. DEX volume has fallen from $35.9 billion per day (January 21st) to ~$1 billion (a 96% decline!). Active addresses are at 2.8 million. Returning users are down to -15.3% (March 4th number). Pros: TVL (Total Volume Locked) has recovered to $9 billion after the Q4 decline. TVL in Defi is at all-time highs - 80.27 million. Stablecoins on Solana are absorb $15.65 billion, indicating capital confidence. This could be seen as a short-term negative, but structurally, everything is fine.
5️⃣ The decline of interest in memecoins is the main blow to SOL. Pump.fun (a memecoin launchpad) lost 75% of its trading volume. In 2025, almost half of Solana's fees came from memecoin trading. Token creation fell to 20-30K/day. However, trading is shifting from memecoins to stablecoin pairs on SOL. The negative is momentary, but neutral in the long term.
6️⃣ Whale accumulation. Large wallets regularly buy SOL in batches of 10+ transactions. Overall, whale interest in buying remains. During price declines, this can historically be an accumulation pattern. Neutral at the moment, positive in the medium term.
7️⃣ Tokenomics and inflation. SOL inflation is ~4%, declining by 15% annually (target: 1.5%). Early investor and team unlocks by 2026 are mostly complete, reducing selling pressure. ~50% of SOL is staked, reducing supply. Positive, but more likely in the medium term.
8️⃣ RWA and institutional investors. Solana's RWA TVL exceeded $1.3 billion. WisdomTree launched tokenized funds. Solana Company and Anchorage Digital launched institutional borrowing secured by staked SOL. Ripple Prime opened institutional access to SOL futures through Coinbase Derivatives (March 5). Positive, but also in medium-term.
👉🏻 Conclusion 👈🏻: SOLUSDT is under significant pressure in the short term – fear (25/100), Trump with tariffs, pressure on risky assets due to the Iran war, the collapse of the memcoin economy, the number of active addresses has fallen, and ETF outflows are rife. But the medium-term picture looks good: whales are accumulating, TVL is strong, there are a decent number of stablecoins, unlocks are ending, and inflation is declining. Important near-term points of interest: FOMC on March 18 and the possible launch of Alpenglow (no date yet, network update). So, the average forecast is neutral. For now, geopolitics is the main pressure; if there is a resolution of any kind, SOL could skyrocket very quickly.
Technical Analysis:
1️⃣СCI – heading towards -100. With the current price configuration, a sharp move below 0 is likely – confirmation of entry.
2️⃣RSI - in the middle of the neutral zone. Often, as a wave develops, a crossover through the middle and a further move to the extreme levels confirms the direction. I expect a move towards 30.
3️⃣VPVR zones - increased volume at 90.2, 85.19, 79.04
4️⃣Fib - The 61.8% Fib level is mainly important as a potential stop and key level for executing the trade
5️⃣Moving Average Crossovers/Breakthroughs - a downward breakout of the 200 EMA confirms the trade
6️⃣Larger TF (h4) - Approximately the middle of the flat (often a reversal zone in a flat) + a breakout of the 50 and 20 EMAs confirms the trade.
Entry, Stop, Take Profit:
🔸Entry: Sell. Breakout of 85.37 from top to bottom.
🔸Stop: 88.67 = 61.8% Fibonacci
🔸Take: TP = 77.75 = first extension for the previous h1 wave
🔸Risk/Reward: 2.28 for TP. However, if there's a significant decline, you can safely move the trade to 87.02 or to the entry level. Due to the chart situation, the risk is well-managed.
🔸Execution: By the end of the week.
Cancellation
🔸Upward breakout of 61.8% Fibonacci. The trade will need to be reconsidered.
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.