#SPX – Correction Scenarios
The S&P 500 is entering a corrective phase after completing a full 5-wave impulse.
Current price: 6,654
Main focus: potential retracement between 6,350–6,150 pts
Technical Context
• The index reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (≈6,520) — typical for the final wave 5.
• RSI divergence + trendline break confirm exhaustion.
• Structure now shifts into ABC correction, possibly extending into wave (4) or a larger degree A-wave.
Correction Scenarios
1️⃣ Shallow pullback (yellow path)
• Target: 6,600–6,530 (0.236 Fib)
• Structure: quick ABC with limited downside — “wave 4 inside 5.”
• Bias: short-term profit-taking only.
• Probability: High, if Fed remains neutral and earnings stay solid.
2️⃣ Standard correction (purple path)
• Target: 6,350 (0.382 Fib / Pivot)
• Structure: classic A-B-C retracement after trend extension.
• Represents healthy market cooling without trend reversal.
• Probability: Base case / Most likely.
3️⃣ Deeper correction (white path)
• Target: 6,150 (0.5 Fib / EMA 200 zone)
• Structure: larger A-B-C completing wave (4).
• Often precedes a strong new impulse (wave 5 of higher degree).
• Probability: Moderate, triggered by weaker Q3 data or tighter Fed tone.
4️⃣ Extended correction (cyan path)
• Target: 6,030–5,800 (0.618–0.786 Fib)
• Structure: deeper W-X-Y or expanded flat, washing out late longs.
• Long-term accumulation zone.
• Probability: Low, but key for long-term investors.
📌 Summary
• SPX likely transitions into a corrective ABC structure.
• Primary support area: 6,350–6,150.
• Only a break below 6,000 would confirm a broader trend reversal.
• Until then, overall bias stays medium-term bullish — correction before continuation.
The S&P 500 is entering a corrective phase after completing a full 5-wave impulse.
Current price: 6,654
Main focus: potential retracement between 6,350–6,150 pts
Technical Context
• The index reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (≈6,520) — typical for the final wave 5.
• RSI divergence + trendline break confirm exhaustion.
• Structure now shifts into ABC correction, possibly extending into wave (4) or a larger degree A-wave.
Correction Scenarios
1️⃣ Shallow pullback (yellow path)
• Target: 6,600–6,530 (0.236 Fib)
• Structure: quick ABC with limited downside — “wave 4 inside 5.”
• Bias: short-term profit-taking only.
• Probability: High, if Fed remains neutral and earnings stay solid.
2️⃣ Standard correction (purple path)
• Target: 6,350 (0.382 Fib / Pivot)
• Structure: classic A-B-C retracement after trend extension.
• Represents healthy market cooling without trend reversal.
• Probability: Base case / Most likely.
3️⃣ Deeper correction (white path)
• Target: 6,150 (0.5 Fib / EMA 200 zone)
• Structure: larger A-B-C completing wave (4).
• Often precedes a strong new impulse (wave 5 of higher degree).
• Probability: Moderate, triggered by weaker Q3 data or tighter Fed tone.
4️⃣ Extended correction (cyan path)
• Target: 6,030–5,800 (0.618–0.786 Fib)
• Structure: deeper W-X-Y or expanded flat, washing out late longs.
• Long-term accumulation zone.
• Probability: Low, but key for long-term investors.
📌 Summary
• SPX likely transitions into a corrective ABC structure.
• Primary support area: 6,350–6,150.
• Only a break below 6,000 would confirm a broader trend reversal.
• Until then, overall bias stays medium-term bullish — correction before continuation.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.