The S&P 500 on the H4 timeframe continues maintaining a very clean bullish structure after the strong reversal from the April lows. Price keeps printing higher highs and higher lows, and is now trading around 7,520 near fresh highs.
What stands out most to me is that price remains above both EMAs, while the short-term EMA continues sloping upward and acting as dynamic support around 7,380–7,400. This suggests that buying flow still controls the broader trend. However, the distance between price and the EMAs has also become quite stretched, meaning short-term volatility and pullback risk should not be ignored.
From a macro perspective, US equities continue receiving support from strong corporate earnings expectations and ongoing enthusiasm around AI-related stocks. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and upcoming US inflation data could make markets more sensitive, especially after several consecutive weeks of strong upside momentum.
With the current structure, I still lean bullish overall, but I do not want to chase longs directly near the highs. A cleaner setup for me would be waiting for a support retest, because if institutional money is truly still supporting the market, they will often defend major EMA zones before pushing price toward new highs again.
What stands out most to me is that price remains above both EMAs, while the short-term EMA continues sloping upward and acting as dynamic support around 7,380–7,400. This suggests that buying flow still controls the broader trend. However, the distance between price and the EMAs has also become quite stretched, meaning short-term volatility and pullback risk should not be ignored.
From a macro perspective, US equities continue receiving support from strong corporate earnings expectations and ongoing enthusiasm around AI-related stocks. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and upcoming US inflation data could make markets more sensitive, especially after several consecutive weeks of strong upside momentum.
With the current structure, I still lean bullish overall, but I do not want to chase longs directly near the highs. A cleaner setup for me would be waiting for a support retest, because if institutional money is truly still supporting the market, they will often defend major EMA zones before pushing price toward new highs again.
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