USDJPY continues to maintain a stable bullish structure. Price has consolidated above the 157 area, which previously saw strong selling pressure. Acceptance above this level signals the preservation of bullish control and confirms that the current move represents a continuation of the trend rather than its final phase.
The technical picture remains constructive: the market is consistently forming higher lows, pullbacks are being bought, and the structure shows no signs of distribution. As long as price holds above previously broken zones, the upside scenario remains the priority.
From a fundamental perspective, the move is still supported by carry trade dynamics. Positive swap rates and the significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan remain the key drivers. Even considering a potential 0.25 bp rate cut by the Fed, the differential would remain substantial — around 3.75% versus 0.75%. Such a gap cannot be closed in the short term and continues to fuel demand for the dollar against the yen.
At the same time, it is important to account for the shift in the Bank of Japan’s rhetoric. The regulator has already raised its policy rate by 0.25 bp, signaling dissatisfaction with excessive weakness in the national currency. Moreover, the BoJ has openly allowed for the possibility of another 0.25 bp hike. This significantly increases the likelihood of sharp corrective moves and heightens the risk of sudden currency interventions, which have been used repeatedly in the past.
Overall, the market remains in a bullish phase, but the risk balance is shifting toward higher volatility. Trading with the trend is still justified, though it requires closer attention to market structure, momentum, and price reactions near key levels.
The technical picture remains constructive: the market is consistently forming higher lows, pullbacks are being bought, and the structure shows no signs of distribution. As long as price holds above previously broken zones, the upside scenario remains the priority.
From a fundamental perspective, the move is still supported by carry trade dynamics. Positive swap rates and the significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan remain the key drivers. Even considering a potential 0.25 bp rate cut by the Fed, the differential would remain substantial — around 3.75% versus 0.75%. Such a gap cannot be closed in the short term and continues to fuel demand for the dollar against the yen.
At the same time, it is important to account for the shift in the Bank of Japan’s rhetoric. The regulator has already raised its policy rate by 0.25 bp, signaling dissatisfaction with excessive weakness in the national currency. Moreover, the BoJ has openly allowed for the possibility of another 0.25 bp hike. This significantly increases the likelihood of sharp corrective moves and heightens the risk of sudden currency interventions, which have been used repeatedly in the past.
Overall, the market remains in a bullish phase, but the risk balance is shifting toward higher volatility. Trading with the trend is still justified, though it requires closer attention to market structure, momentum, and price reactions near key levels.
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🔥Trade with Strifor broker 👉 t.me/+vEBNFbz_wItmNzhi
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.