Market Context
Gold is struggling near 4,006 as sellers continue to pressure the recovery.
The broader H1 structure remains bearish, with multiple BOS formations and lower highs confirming seller dominance.
However, price is approaching the lower boundary of an ascending channel, where buyers may attempt to establish a short-term reversal.
The key question is whether 3,975 can hold and support a recovery towards 4,060 and potentially 4,100.
1. SMC Analysis - A Critical Support Test
The broader bearish structure remains intact after repeated downside BOS formations.
Gold failed to sustain its recovery above 4,080 and is now trading beneath the immediate resistance near 4,015.
4,014-4,020 - Immediate Resistance
The first level buyers must reclaim. Rejection here could extend selling pressure towards 3,975.
3,975-3,980 - Key Structural Support
A liquidity sweep followed by bullish CHoCH could create an opportunity for a recovery.
4,059-4,060 - Recovery Confirmation
A confirmed breakout and successful retest would strengthen the short-term bullish scenario.
2. Fibonacci and Ascending Channel
Gold remains inside the broader ascending channel, but the lower boundary is now being tested.
Important Fibonacci and structural levels:
4,025-4,035 - Initial recovery resistance
4,040-4,050 - Intermediate Fibonacci resistance
4,059-4,060 - Recovery confirmation
4,080-4,100 - Upper channel target
4,108 - Higher Fibonacci resistance
3,975 - Structural support
Bearish Scenario: A confirmed breakdown below 3,975 could expose deeper demand around 3,940-3,950.
Bullish Scenario: A successful liquidity sweep near 3,975 followed by bullish confirmation could support recovery towards 4,060 and 4,100.
3. Key Price Zones
Current price: 4,006
Immediate resistance: 4,014-4,020
Recovery confirmation: 4,059-4,060
Upper channel target: 4,080-4,100
Higher resistance: 4,108-4,140
Higher bearish supply: 4,170-4,190
Key structural support: 3,975-3,980
Deeper support: 3,940-3,950
4. Trading Scenarios
Primary Buy - Liquidity Sweep
Entry: 3,975-3,985 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 3,960
TP1: 4,015
TP2: 4,060
TP3: 4,080-4,100
Confirmation: Liquidity sweep, bullish CHoCH and successful support retest.
Alternative Sell - Failed Reclaim
Entry: 4,014-4,020 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above 4,035
TP1: 4,000
TP2: 3,975
TP3: 3,940-3,950
Confirmation: Bearish rejection and renewed selling momentum.
Breakout Buy - Bullish Recovery
Entry: Above 4,060 after confirmed breakout and retest
SL: Below 4,040
TP1: 4,080
TP2: 4,100
TP3: 4,108
Confirmation: Bullish BOS and sustained momentum above resistance.
5. Owen's Overall View
Gold remains bearish in the broader structure, but ascending channel support creates a potential recovery opportunity.
SMC: Bearish BOS continues to favour sellers until buyers confirm a bullish structural shift.
Fibonacci: Reclaiming 4,060 would strengthen the recovery towards 4,080-4,100.
Ascending Channel: The lower boundary near 3,975 remains the critical support.
My preferred scenario: Gold tests or sweeps liquidity near 3,975 before attempting a recovery towards 4,060 and potentially 4,100, provided buyers confirm a bullish reversal.
However, a confirmed breakdown below 3,975 would weaken this outlook and expose 3,940-3,950.
The key lesson: A liquidity sweep creates an opportunity, but a confirmed structural shift determines whether the recovery is sustainable.
What's Your View?
Will gold defend 3,975 and recover towards 4,100, or will sellers extend the decline towards 3,940?
Would you buy a confirmed liquidity sweep near 3,975 or wait for a breakout above 4,060?
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
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📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+jrl2oZUhoZo3NzU1
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+jrl2oZUhoZo3NzU1
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+jrl2oZUhoZo3NzU1
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+jrl2oZUhoZo3NzU1
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.