XAU/USD 14 January 2026 Intraday Analysis

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H4 Analysis:

-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.

Price has printed according to my analysis dated 13 January 2026 where I mentioned, in alternative scenario, price to continue bullish.

As a result of continued bullish momentum CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to recent price action.

Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.

Intraday expectation:

Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,639.890

Alternative scenario: Price to again continue bullish.

Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.

Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.

Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.

H4 Chart: Snapshot

M15 Analysis:

-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.

Price has printed according to my analysis dated 13 January 2026 where I mentioned, in alternative scenario, price to continue bullish.

Price continued bullish with very minimal pullback, therefore, I will not classify previous IBOS.

Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, again, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.

Intraday expectation:

Price to trade down to either M15 or H4 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,639.890.

Alternative scenario:

Price could potentially continue bullish.

Note:

Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.

With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.

Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.

M15 Chart: Snapshot

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