Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls flirt with ascending channel /50% Fibo. confluence
Gold prolonged its recent move up and shot to a near one-month high on Wednesday.
Inflation fears, the Ukraine crisis, modest USD pullback remained supportive of the move.
The prospects for a more aggressive Fed kept a lid on any further gains for the metal.
Gold stretched its winning streak for the fifth successive day on Wednesday and climbed to a near one-month high, around the $1,981-$1,982 region. The US consumer prices showed no signs of easing in March and accelerated to levels last seen in 1981. Moreover, the Producer Price Inflation indicated that there are pipeline costs that could put upward pressure on the already high inflation . This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that continued boosting the metal's appeal as a hedge against rising costs. The US consumer inflation figures, however, were not as bad as feared by the markets, which forced the US Treasury bond yields to pause their recent strong rally to the multi-year peak. This triggered a corrective pullback in the US dollar from its highest level since May 2020 and offered additional support to the dollar-denominated commodity.
On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end. The comments dashed hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war and fueled concerns about the potential economic fallout from the Ukraine crisis. This was seen as another factor that benefitted the safe-haven gold . That said, a goodish recovery in the risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - acted as a headwind for the precious metal. Apart from this, expectations that the Fed would tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to curb soaring inflation further contributed to cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. The bets were reaffirmed by Fed Governor Lael Brainard, saying that the central bank will stay the course on hiking interest rates, as well as an effort to trim its balance sheet .
Moving ahead, the market focus now shifts to the European Central Bank , which is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from the US economic docket - featuring the releases of monthly Retail Sales figures, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The combination of factors will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to gold prices. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines will be looked upon to grab some short-term opportunities.
Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the overnight positive move stalled near the top end of an upward sloping channel extending from sub-$1,900 levels. The said barrier, currently around the $1,985-$1,986 region, coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the $2,071-$1,890 fall and should act as a pivotal point. A convincing breakthrough should allow bulls to aim back to reclaim the $2,000 psychological mark and push spot prices to the $2,010-$2,015 intermediate resistance. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards testing the next relevant hurdle near the $2,050 area.
On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $1,960 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some technical selling. The XAU/USD could then accelerate the fall towards challenging the ascending channel support, currently around the $1,960 region. Sustained weakness below the latter would shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and make gold vulnerable to test the $1,915-$1,914 support before eventually dropping to the $1,900 round-figure mark.
Gold prolonged its recent move up and shot to a near one-month high on Wednesday.
Inflation fears, the Ukraine crisis, modest USD pullback remained supportive of the move.
The prospects for a more aggressive Fed kept a lid on any further gains for the metal.
Gold stretched its winning streak for the fifth successive day on Wednesday and climbed to a near one-month high, around the $1,981-$1,982 region. The US consumer prices showed no signs of easing in March and accelerated to levels last seen in 1981. Moreover, the Producer Price Inflation indicated that there are pipeline costs that could put upward pressure on the already high inflation . This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that continued boosting the metal's appeal as a hedge against rising costs. The US consumer inflation figures, however, were not as bad as feared by the markets, which forced the US Treasury bond yields to pause their recent strong rally to the multi-year peak. This triggered a corrective pullback in the US dollar from its highest level since May 2020 and offered additional support to the dollar-denominated commodity.
On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end. The comments dashed hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war and fueled concerns about the potential economic fallout from the Ukraine crisis. This was seen as another factor that benefitted the safe-haven gold . That said, a goodish recovery in the risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - acted as a headwind for the precious metal. Apart from this, expectations that the Fed would tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to curb soaring inflation further contributed to cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. The bets were reaffirmed by Fed Governor Lael Brainard, saying that the central bank will stay the course on hiking interest rates, as well as an effort to trim its balance sheet .
Moving ahead, the market focus now shifts to the European Central Bank , which is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from the US economic docket - featuring the releases of monthly Retail Sales figures, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The combination of factors will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to gold prices. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines will be looked upon to grab some short-term opportunities.
Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the overnight positive move stalled near the top end of an upward sloping channel extending from sub-$1,900 levels. The said barrier, currently around the $1,985-$1,986 region, coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the $2,071-$1,890 fall and should act as a pivotal point. A convincing breakthrough should allow bulls to aim back to reclaim the $2,000 psychological mark and push spot prices to the $2,010-$2,015 intermediate resistance. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards testing the next relevant hurdle near the $2,050 area.
On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $1,960 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some technical selling. The XAU/USD could then accelerate the fall towards challenging the ascending channel support, currently around the $1,960 region. Sustained weakness below the latter would shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and make gold vulnerable to test the $1,915-$1,914 support before eventually dropping to the $1,900 round-figure mark.
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🔥 USA ZERO SPREAD BROKER: forexn1.com/usa/
🔥 UP to 4000$ BONUS: forexn1.com/broker/
🟪 Instagram: instagram.com/forexn1_com/
🔥 USA ZERO SPREAD BROKER: forexn1.com/usa/
🔥 UP to 4000$ BONUS: forexn1.com/broker/
🟪 Instagram: instagram.com/forexn1_com/
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.