Fundamentals:
1️⃣ Geopolitics: US/Israel war with Iran → 🟢 Positive for gold
🔸Nothing to suggest peace yet.
2️⃣ Fed rate - 3.50-3.75% → ⚪ Neutral
🔸FOMC meeting today (March 18). Probability of holding the current rate: 95.5-96%.
🔸First dot plot of 2026 (anonymous directors' opinions on future rates) - key focus on the impact of oil prices.
3️⃣ US Inflation → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸The March CPI (released April 10) is the first to reflect the jump in oil prices.
🔸The market is pricing in rising inflation → positive for gold as a hedge.
4️⃣ Dollar Index (DXY) - ~99.50 → ⚪ Neutral
🔸Unusual situation: the dollar and gold are simultaneously in upward trends. Both are safe-haven assets.
5️⃣ Central Bank Purchases → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸Banks are buying more.
6️⃣ Gold ETF Flows → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸For Q1 2026 (preliminary): inflow of 21 billion (~226 tonnes) - the second strongest quarter of all time of record.
7️⃣ Supply and Demand Balance → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸For Q1 2026 (preliminary): total demand of ~1,206 tonnes - the highest for Q1 since 2016.
8️⃣ Oil → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸Brent: ~$102.64, WTI: ~$94.23.
🔸Expensive oil → rising inflation expectations → Fed unable to cut rates → stagflation potential → gold rising.
9️⃣ US Treasury yields → ⚪ Neutral
🔸The real yield of 1.88% is historically high, but gold is currently rising due to other indicators.
Conclusion👈🏻
Priority scenario: continued growth of XAUUSD. Fundamental decline only due to de-escalation of the conflict with Iran and falling oil prices.
Technical analysis:
1️⃣СCI - below -100. A move to 0 is required for a trade.
2️⃣RSI - around 50. Suspended. Trade confirmation - a move above 50
3️⃣VPVR zones - 5000, 5090, and 5178
4️⃣Fibonacci levels - the main ones: a lot of levels for movement. The 23.6% is important right now, as it's near the heavy 200 EMA.
5️⃣Moving average crossovers/breakouts - a trade requires a confirmed breakout of the 50 EMA from below.
6️⃣Elder timeframe (h4) - consolidation near the 200 EMA on h4. A move above this EMA is a trade confirmation.
Entry, stop, take profit:
🔸Entry: Buy. Breakout of 5016 from below
🔸Stop: Preliminary 4965. Stop loss for consolidation below the 200 EMA on H4
🔸Take: Fibonacci level at 5190
🔸Risk/reward: 3.88 at the TP level.
🔸Execution: Possible until next week.
Cancellation
🔸Price moves to a second downward extension at 4925 without breaking the 50 EMA or attempting to consolidate there. Recalculate everything then.
1️⃣ Geopolitics: US/Israel war with Iran → 🟢 Positive for gold
🔸Nothing to suggest peace yet.
2️⃣ Fed rate - 3.50-3.75% → ⚪ Neutral
🔸FOMC meeting today (March 18). Probability of holding the current rate: 95.5-96%.
🔸First dot plot of 2026 (anonymous directors' opinions on future rates) - key focus on the impact of oil prices.
3️⃣ US Inflation → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸The March CPI (released April 10) is the first to reflect the jump in oil prices.
🔸The market is pricing in rising inflation → positive for gold as a hedge.
4️⃣ Dollar Index (DXY) - ~99.50 → ⚪ Neutral
🔸Unusual situation: the dollar and gold are simultaneously in upward trends. Both are safe-haven assets.
5️⃣ Central Bank Purchases → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸Banks are buying more.
6️⃣ Gold ETF Flows → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸For Q1 2026 (preliminary): inflow of 21 billion (~226 tonnes) - the second strongest quarter of all time of record.
7️⃣ Supply and Demand Balance → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸For Q1 2026 (preliminary): total demand of ~1,206 tonnes - the highest for Q1 since 2016.
8️⃣ Oil → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸Brent: ~$102.64, WTI: ~$94.23.
🔸Expensive oil → rising inflation expectations → Fed unable to cut rates → stagflation potential → gold rising.
9️⃣ US Treasury yields → ⚪ Neutral
🔸The real yield of 1.88% is historically high, but gold is currently rising due to other indicators.
Conclusion👈🏻
Priority scenario: continued growth of XAUUSD. Fundamental decline only due to de-escalation of the conflict with Iran and falling oil prices.
Technical analysis:
1️⃣СCI - below -100. A move to 0 is required for a trade.
2️⃣RSI - around 50. Suspended. Trade confirmation - a move above 50
3️⃣VPVR zones - 5000, 5090, and 5178
4️⃣Fibonacci levels - the main ones: a lot of levels for movement. The 23.6% is important right now, as it's near the heavy 200 EMA.
5️⃣Moving average crossovers/breakouts - a trade requires a confirmed breakout of the 50 EMA from below.
6️⃣Elder timeframe (h4) - consolidation near the 200 EMA on h4. A move above this EMA is a trade confirmation.
Entry, stop, take profit:
🔸Entry: Buy. Breakout of 5016 from below
🔸Stop: Preliminary 4965. Stop loss for consolidation below the 200 EMA on H4
🔸Take: Fibonacci level at 5190
🔸Risk/reward: 3.88 at the TP level.
🔸Execution: Possible until next week.
Cancellation
🔸Price moves to a second downward extension at 4925 without breaking the 50 EMA or attempting to consolidate there. Recalculate everything then.
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Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.