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News：
On Monday (October 6th), spot gold prices accelerated their upward trend during the Asian and European trading hours, rising as high as 1.59% before easing slightly to trade at $3,945 per ounce, up 1.38%. Gold has now achieved seven consecutive weeks of gains. Previously, gold broke out of a bull flag pattern around the time of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Furthermore, despite currently high inflation, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not abandon its already priced-in interest rate cut plan. This shows that the fundamental logic driving gold prices upward shows no sign of ending.
1) Interest Rate Path – The Federal Reserve's "two rate cuts" are almost priced in. This means further easing this year is almost a market consensus, and the "interest-free asset premium" that has persisted since early September has continued to strengthen, accelerating gold's move away from its trend inflection point.
2) Policy Uncertainty – The combination of a shutdown and data shortage. Due to the US government shutdown, a series of key macroeconomic data releases were delayed at the beginning of the month, significantly increasing short-term price discovery's sensitivity to "forward guidance" and official speeches.
3) Currency and Major Commodity Crossover – The "strong dollar, strong gold" scenario is replaying. Sanae Takaichi's victory in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party leadership election has increased the market's probability of the Bank of Japan delaying further rate hikes. A looser yen carry trade has weakened the yen and supported the dollar.
4) Geopolitical Variables – The pulsed supply of risk events. On Europe's eastern flank, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues; in the Middle East, the US President has urged Israel and Hamas to "move forward" with their peace plan. Both geopolitical risks remain elevated, and marginal increases in safe-haven demand are fueling the trend.
5) Intraday Catalysts - "Official Speeches Take Priority, Data Follows Later." Due to data delays, the market will focus more on the comments of FOMC voting members and key members. Short-term gold price drivers will be reflected in the fine-tuning of "words + expectations."
Overall, fundamentals continue to provide a favorable environment for gold prices, and the probability of trend continuation is higher than that of a reversal.
Specifically:
On the daily chart, gold has been performing strongly since breaking through the $3,900 mark last week. For downward support, watch for $3,925, where gold prices hit resistance earlier this morning. After breaking through this level, prices retreated to test $3,925 before stabilizing and continuing their upward trend. Secondly, watch for $3,900, where gold prices stabilized after hitting resistance earlier this morning. For upward pressure, watch for the current intraday high of $3,950, also a historical high. Further gains suggest upward momentum, but there's no need to speculate on a top.
The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator have formed a golden cross, while the KDJ and RSI indicators are crossing upward in overbought territory. Short-term technical indicators suggest continued bullishness, with gold remaining in overbought territory, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
Strategy：
Long Position3920，SL:3900，Target:3980,4000
News：
On Monday (October 6th), spot gold prices accelerated their upward trend during the Asian and European trading hours, rising as high as 1.59% before easing slightly to trade at $3,945 per ounce, up 1.38%. Gold has now achieved seven consecutive weeks of gains. Previously, gold broke out of a bull flag pattern around the time of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Furthermore, despite currently high inflation, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not abandon its already priced-in interest rate cut plan. This shows that the fundamental logic driving gold prices upward shows no sign of ending.
1) Interest Rate Path – The Federal Reserve's "two rate cuts" are almost priced in. This means further easing this year is almost a market consensus, and the "interest-free asset premium" that has persisted since early September has continued to strengthen, accelerating gold's move away from its trend inflection point.
2) Policy Uncertainty – The combination of a shutdown and data shortage. Due to the US government shutdown, a series of key macroeconomic data releases were delayed at the beginning of the month, significantly increasing short-term price discovery's sensitivity to "forward guidance" and official speeches.
3) Currency and Major Commodity Crossover – The "strong dollar, strong gold" scenario is replaying. Sanae Takaichi's victory in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party leadership election has increased the market's probability of the Bank of Japan delaying further rate hikes. A looser yen carry trade has weakened the yen and supported the dollar.
4) Geopolitical Variables – The pulsed supply of risk events. On Europe's eastern flank, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues; in the Middle East, the US President has urged Israel and Hamas to "move forward" with their peace plan. Both geopolitical risks remain elevated, and marginal increases in safe-haven demand are fueling the trend.
5) Intraday Catalysts - "Official Speeches Take Priority, Data Follows Later." Due to data delays, the market will focus more on the comments of FOMC voting members and key members. Short-term gold price drivers will be reflected in the fine-tuning of "words + expectations."
Overall, fundamentals continue to provide a favorable environment for gold prices, and the probability of trend continuation is higher than that of a reversal.
Specifically:
On the daily chart, gold has been performing strongly since breaking through the $3,900 mark last week. For downward support, watch for $3,925, where gold prices hit resistance earlier this morning. After breaking through this level, prices retreated to test $3,925 before stabilizing and continuing their upward trend. Secondly, watch for $3,900, where gold prices stabilized after hitting resistance earlier this morning. For upward pressure, watch for the current intraday high of $3,950, also a historical high. Further gains suggest upward momentum, but there's no need to speculate on a top.
The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator have formed a golden cross, while the KDJ and RSI indicators are crossing upward in overbought territory. Short-term technical indicators suggest continued bullishness, with gold remaining in overbought territory, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
Strategy：
Long Position3920，SL:3900，Target:3980,4000
Trade ist aktiv
Expectations of rate cuts coupled with safe-haven buying support gold's upward trendTrade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
Gold has reached above $4,000 as we expected
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Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.