Hi, I’m Maicol, an Italian trader.
I’ve been studying Gold since 2019.
My approach is swing and intraday trading.
I need your support.
Leave a like and follow me.
It’s a small thing for you, but important for my work.
Please read the description to understand the trading plan.
Don’t focus only on the chart. Thanks.
🌞 GOOD MORNING 🌞
🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍
Alright guys, yesterday the first aggressive zone got stopped out.
The second higher zone around the daily open was slightly swept, but we still got a very good rejection and H1 structure shift.
My idea remains short today as long as 4570 is not invalidated on the daily timeframe.
Main target remains yesterday’s Asian session lows at minimum.
WHAT DID THE FOMC SAY YESTERDAY?
Tone: Hawkish 🦅
Main signals:
• Inflation language became more aggressive
• Rate cuts were pushed further into the future
• The market is now starting to price a possible rate hike in 2027
• Several Fed members openly confirmed that additional tightening may be needed if inflation remains elevated
📌 Overall, the Fed delivered a clearly hawkish message and kept the door open for higher rates rather than cuts.
Normally, this is negative for:
* Gold
* Indices
* Crypto
That said, much of this information is already priced in by the market.
Right now, the market is far more focused on oil risk, especially the possibility of three supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time:
• Trump continues posting aggressive and unpredictable comments
• Iran keeps sending mixed signals, saying the Strait could “possibly” reopen
⚠️ Personally, I believe Iran is simply buying time, and the risk of escalation could increase over the weekend or early next week.
SCENARIO:
🕊️ Peace Deal Scenario
• Geopolitical risk premium fades
• Safe-haven demand decreases
• Gold could struggle to maintain upside momentum in the medium to long term as risk-on sentiment returns
• Possible rejection from resistance followed by bearish continuation
🔥 No Peace Deal Scenario
• Geopolitical premium returns
• Short-term bullish spikes remain possible
• However, unless bond yields and the USD weaken significantly, rallies may continue to be selling opportunities
Other macro drivers:
🛢️ Oil:
Brent rebounded as markets reassessed geopolitical risks and tighter inventory conditions.
📈 Yields:
Global bond markets remain under pressure. US 10Y yields are near yearly highs, while the 30Y yield is at its highest level since 2007.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China:
Trump and Xi reduced part of the trade tension, but there was no real breakthrough regarding Iran or the broader strategic issues.
Markets are currently facing a three-way macro collision:
• Uncertainty around a possible US–Iran peace deal
• US yields continuing to rise
• AI and tech momentum still supporting equity markets
Every day feels like a yo-yo. One headline is enough to completely shift market sentiment.
Right now, the market is pricing the Middle East situation through this chain:
Oil → Inflation → Yields → USD
Brent moved back above $106 after optimism around a peace deal with Iran faded. Earlier, oil dropped sharply as traders believed an agreement was close.
My bias remains cautiously bearish.
Why?
• There is still no final agreement between the US and Iran
• Trump stated negotiations are close, but also warned the US could strike again if Iran fails to cooperate
• Iran continues sending mixed signals, keeping uncertainty elevated
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything!
📬 If you have any questions or doubts, feel free to message me anytime.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus remains on the 14:30 news releases and the New York open at 15:30.
In the meantime, have a great day everyone.
* GOOD TRADING
* MANAGE YOUR RISK
* BE PATIENT
I’ve been studying Gold since 2019.
My approach is swing and intraday trading.
I need your support.
Leave a like and follow me.
It’s a small thing for you, but important for my work.
Please read the description to understand the trading plan.
Don’t focus only on the chart. Thanks.
🌞 GOOD MORNING 🌞
🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍
Alright guys, yesterday the first aggressive zone got stopped out.
The second higher zone around the daily open was slightly swept, but we still got a very good rejection and H1 structure shift.
My idea remains short today as long as 4570 is not invalidated on the daily timeframe.
Main target remains yesterday’s Asian session lows at minimum.
WHAT DID THE FOMC SAY YESTERDAY?
Tone: Hawkish 🦅
Main signals:
• Inflation language became more aggressive
• Rate cuts were pushed further into the future
• The market is now starting to price a possible rate hike in 2027
• Several Fed members openly confirmed that additional tightening may be needed if inflation remains elevated
📌 Overall, the Fed delivered a clearly hawkish message and kept the door open for higher rates rather than cuts.
Normally, this is negative for:
* Gold
* Indices
* Crypto
That said, much of this information is already priced in by the market.
Right now, the market is far more focused on oil risk, especially the possibility of three supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time:
• Trump continues posting aggressive and unpredictable comments
• Iran keeps sending mixed signals, saying the Strait could “possibly” reopen
⚠️ Personally, I believe Iran is simply buying time, and the risk of escalation could increase over the weekend or early next week.
SCENARIO:
🕊️ Peace Deal Scenario
• Geopolitical risk premium fades
• Safe-haven demand decreases
• Gold could struggle to maintain upside momentum in the medium to long term as risk-on sentiment returns
• Possible rejection from resistance followed by bearish continuation
🔥 No Peace Deal Scenario
• Geopolitical premium returns
• Short-term bullish spikes remain possible
• However, unless bond yields and the USD weaken significantly, rallies may continue to be selling opportunities
Other macro drivers:
🛢️ Oil:
Brent rebounded as markets reassessed geopolitical risks and tighter inventory conditions.
📈 Yields:
Global bond markets remain under pressure. US 10Y yields are near yearly highs, while the 30Y yield is at its highest level since 2007.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China:
Trump and Xi reduced part of the trade tension, but there was no real breakthrough regarding Iran or the broader strategic issues.
Markets are currently facing a three-way macro collision:
• Uncertainty around a possible US–Iran peace deal
• US yields continuing to rise
• AI and tech momentum still supporting equity markets
Every day feels like a yo-yo. One headline is enough to completely shift market sentiment.
Right now, the market is pricing the Middle East situation through this chain:
Oil → Inflation → Yields → USD
Brent moved back above $106 after optimism around a peace deal with Iran faded. Earlier, oil dropped sharply as traders believed an agreement was close.
My bias remains cautiously bearish.
Why?
• There is still no final agreement between the US and Iran
• Trump stated negotiations are close, but also warned the US could strike again if Iran fails to cooperate
• Iran continues sending mixed signals, keeping uncertainty elevated
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything!
📬 If you have any questions or doubts, feel free to message me anytime.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus remains on the 14:30 news releases and the New York open at 15:30.
In the meantime, have a great day everyone.
* GOOD TRADING
* MANAGE YOUR RISK
* BE PATIENT
TELEGRAM: t.me/+L2Q2beyDgt84OWI0
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
TELEGRAM: t.me/+L2Q2beyDgt84OWI0
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
TWITCH LIVE SESSION: twitch.tv/goldenboy_maicol
YOUTUBE: youtube.com/@GoldenBoySTrading
TIKTOK: tiktok.com/@maicol_goldenboys
Verbundene Veröffentlichungen
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.