SOYBEAN FUTURES –
Price: 1117.0
Weekly 55 EMA: 1116.0
Weekly 200 EMA: 1152.0
DXY: 99.87
US 10Y Real Yield: 2.198%
Bloomberg Commodity Index: 130.48
The macro environment has become significantly less supportive for grains than a month ago:
Headwinds
DXY approaching 100.00
Real Yield back near 2.20%
Bloomberg Commodity Index falling sharply from 138.96 → 130.48
Managed Money reducing longs and aggressively adding shorts.....This is a classic risk-off commodity environment.
USDA Crop Progress Assessment : At current prices the market is increasingly pricing a favorable crop outcome.
Wyckoff Assessment The structure now resembles:
Distribution
Buying Climax:
1235
Automatic Reaction:
1170
Secondary Test:
1194
Sign of Weakness:
Break below 1170
Last Point of Supply:
1194
Current:
Markdown DXY & Real Yield Implications
This combination is typically negative for grains. If: DXY breaks 100 and Real Yield moves above 2.25 : Then pressure likely intensifies. Conclusion :
The market is at the most important technical location since the 955 low.
We have a rare confluence of:
Weekly 55 EMA (1116)
Deeply depressed 36M COT Index (14.9%)
Commercial hedges being reduced
Price testing major support
versus
Aggressive Managed Money short building
DXY near 100
Real Yields near 2.20%
Wyckoff markdown structure
The battle between 1110–1128 will likely determine whether Soybeans are entering a final capitulation phase toward 1082/1038, or beginning a larger re-accumulation process for the second half of the year.
Price: 1117.0
Weekly 55 EMA: 1116.0
Weekly 200 EMA: 1152.0
DXY: 99.87
US 10Y Real Yield: 2.198%
Bloomberg Commodity Index: 130.48
The macro environment has become significantly less supportive for grains than a month ago:
Headwinds
DXY approaching 100.00
Real Yield back near 2.20%
Bloomberg Commodity Index falling sharply from 138.96 → 130.48
Managed Money reducing longs and aggressively adding shorts.....This is a classic risk-off commodity environment.
USDA Crop Progress Assessment : At current prices the market is increasingly pricing a favorable crop outcome.
Wyckoff Assessment The structure now resembles:
Distribution
Buying Climax:
1235
Automatic Reaction:
1170
Secondary Test:
1194
Sign of Weakness:
Break below 1170
Last Point of Supply:
1194
Current:
Markdown DXY & Real Yield Implications
This combination is typically negative for grains. If: DXY breaks 100 and Real Yield moves above 2.25 : Then pressure likely intensifies. Conclusion :
The market is at the most important technical location since the 955 low.
We have a rare confluence of:
Weekly 55 EMA (1116)
Deeply depressed 36M COT Index (14.9%)
Commercial hedges being reduced
Price testing major support
versus
Aggressive Managed Money short building
DXY near 100
Real Yields near 2.20%
Wyckoff markdown structure
The battle between 1110–1128 will likely determine whether Soybeans are entering a final capitulation phase toward 1082/1038, or beginning a larger re-accumulation process for the second half of the year.
Haftungsausschluss
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Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.