OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Aktualisiert DAX VSTOXX Pre-Market Panel
# DAX VSTOXX Pre-Market Panel
## What this indicator does
This panel displays a real-time pre-market dashboard for DAX40 intraday traders, built on a statistical correlation study between the **VSTOXX volatility index (FVS1!)** and the **DAX40 cash session result**.
The core insight: when VSTOXX falls during the trading session, the DAX tends to rise — and vice versa. This inverse relationship is statistically robust and forms the backbone of the day-type classification shown in the panel.
---
## Statistical Foundation
**Dataset:** 68 trading days | January–May 2026 | 1H session data
| Predictor | Correlation r | r² (variance explained) |
|---|---|---|
| VSTOXX Δ | -0.771 | 0.594 |
| Brent Δ% | -0.608 | 0.369 |
| DE 10Y Δ (bp) | -0.558 | 0.311 |
| Combined model | — | 0.693 |
**Regression formula:** `DAX Δ (pts) = -160 × VSTOXX Δ + 19`
**Combined model:** `DAX Δ = -160 × VSTOXX - 1.9 × DE10Y(bp) - 5.1 × Brent(%) + 19`
The p-value for the VSTOXX/DAX relationship is `1.47e-14` — statistically near-certain, not a coincidence.
---
## VSTOXX Delta Thresholds
All thresholds are data-derived from the historical dataset, not arbitrary:
| VSTOXX Session Δ | Bull% | Range% | Bear% | Avg DAX Δ | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < -1.50 | 100% | 0% | 0% | +516 pts | STRONG BULL |
| -1.50 to -0.70 | 33% | 67% | 0% | +102 pts | BULL / RANGE |
| -0.70 to -0.35 | 47% | 47% | 6% | +156 pts | BULL BIAS |
| ± 0.35 (neutral) | 27% | 65% | 8% | +23 pts | RANGE |
| +0.35 to +0.70 | 8% | 69% | 23% | -51 pts | RANGE / BEAR BIAS |
| +0.70 to +1.50 | 0% | 40% | 60% | -180 pts | BEAR TREND |
| > +1.50 | 0% | 14% | 86% | -340 pts | STRONG BEAR |
---
## Panel Sections Explained
### PRE-MARKET (available from 08:00 CET)
**VSTOXX @ 08:00**
The absolute VSTOXX level at Frankfurt pre-open. Determines the volatility class and expected session range:
- < 20 → Low volatility, expected range ~239 pts
- 20–25 → Medium, expected range ~342 pts
- 25–35 → High, expected range ~500+ pts
- > 35 → Extreme, expected range ~700+ pts
**Expected session range**
Historical average DAX high–low range (09:00–17:30 XETR cash) for the given VSTOXX level class. This is a pre-market estimate, not a live calculation.
**Frankfurt delta (08:00 → 09:00)**
VSTOXX movement during the Frankfurt pre-open hour. This is the **earliest directional signal** (r² = 0.22). A drop of more than 0.30 points suggests bull bias; a rise above 0.30 suggests bear bias. Updates live during the 08:00–09:00 window, then freezes.
**Daily delta (prev close → now)**
Total VSTOXX change since yesterday's 17:00 close. This is what your watchlist/broker dashboard shows as the daily percentage change. Gives overnight context.
### SESSION (available from 09:00 CET)
**VSTOXX Session delta (09:00 → now)**
The primary predictor (r² = 0.594). Measures VSTOXX movement from the cash market open. Updates every bar throughout the session.
**DAGTYPE (Day type)**
Automatic classification based on the session delta and the calibrated thresholds:
`STRONG BULL / BULL TREND / BULL BIAS / RANGE / BEAR BIAS / BEAR TREND / STRONG BEAR`
Green = bullish, Red = bearish, Yellow = range/neutral.
**DAX Verwachting (DAX Expected)**
Regression-based point estimate for the DAX session result (open → close).
Formula: `DAX Δ = -160 × (VSTOXX session Δ) + 19`
**1e uur DAX (First hour DAX)**
DAX price change from session open (09:00) to 10:00 close. Historical accuracy: **73% correct** directional match with the full session close. Available from 10:00 CET.
### MACRO (available from 08:00 CET)
Two supplementary macro inputs that add predictive power on top of VSTOXX:
**Brent Δ% (08:00 → now)**
Brent crude oil percentage change since 08:00. Rising oil = inflationary pressure = bearish for DAX (r² = 0.37). Green = oil falling = DAX bullish context.
**DE 10Y Δ bp (08:00 → now)**
German 10-year Bund yield change in basis points since 08:00. Rising yields = higher discount rates = bearish for DAX valuations (r² = 0.31). Green = yields falling = DAX bullish context.
---
## Color Logic (consistent throughout)
| Color | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 🟢 Green | Bullish for DAX |
| 🔴 Red | Bearish for DAX |
| 🟡 Yellow | Neutral / Range |
| Grey | No data yet |
---
## Setup Instructions
**Required chart:** Germany 40 Cash CFD (IG Markets or equivalent) — **15M timeframe**
> ⚠️ This indicator **must be applied to a 24/7 CFD chart** (not the XETR cash chart). The XETR cash market only opens at 09:00 CET, which means the 08:00 VSTOXX capture is impossible on that chart. The CFD chart runs around the clock, allowing pre-market data to be captured correctly.
**Data sources pulled automatically:**
- `EUREX:FVS1!` — VSTOXX continuous futures
- `TVC:DE10Y` — German 10Y Bund yield
- `OANDA:UKOIL_USD` — Brent crude CFD (real-time, no 15-minute delay)
**Settings (all adjustable in indicator inputs):**
- VSTOXX symbol (default: `EUREX:FVS1!`)
- DE 10Y symbol (default: `TVC:DE10Y`)
- Brent symbol (default: `OANDA:UKOIL_USD`)
- Timezone (default: `Europe/Amsterdam`)
- Frankfurt threshold: 0.30 (first directional signal)
- Bias threshold: 0.35
- Trend threshold: 0.70
- Strong signal threshold: 1.50
- Table position: top-right, top-left, bottom-right, bottom-left
- Background color: on/off
---
## How to Use in Practice
**Before 08:00 CET:** Panel shows "waiting" — no actionable data yet.
**08:00 CET — Frankfurt opens:**
- Check VSTOXX @ 08:00 level → determine volatility class and expected range
- Monitor Frankfurt delta as it builds live → first directional hint
- Check Brent and DE 10Y direction for macro context
**08:00–09:00 CET — Frankfurt hour:**
- If Frankfurt delta > +0.30: bear bias forming
- If Frankfurt delta < -0.30: bull bias forming
- If within ±0.30: neutral, wait for session confirmation
**09:00–09:15 CET — Observation window (no trades):**
- Watch opening bar direction
- Does it confirm or contradict the Frankfurt signal?
**09:15+ CET — Session active:**
- Session delta starts building → day type classification activates
- DAX Expected updates with every VSTOXX tick
- Strong signals (|delta| > 1.50) have 85–100% historical precision
**10:00 CET:**
- First hour result confirms or rejects the pre-market bias
- 73% historical directional accuracy with full session close
---
## Alerts
Four built-in alerts:
1. **Frankfurt BULL signal** — VSTOXX Frankfurt delta crosses below threshold
2. **Frankfurt BEAR signal** — VSTOXX Frankfurt delta crosses above threshold
3. **BULL TREND confirmed** — Session delta crosses into BULL TREND / STRONG BULL zone
4. **BEAR TREND confirmed** — Session delta crosses into BEAR TREND / STRONG BEAR zone
---
## Important Notes
- **Gray zone (±0.35 neutral):** Within this range, VSTOXX alone is insufficient. Use Brent and DE 10Y for additional context. When in doubt, classify as RANGE and trade selectively or not at all.
- **Regression formula accuracy:** r² = 0.594 means VSTOXX explains ~59% of daily DAX variance. The remaining 41% is driven by news, earnings, geopolitics, and other factors not captured in this model.
- **Lead-lag is zero:** Statistical testing confirms that yesterday's VSTOXX, S&P500, or VIX has no meaningful predictive power for today's DAX session. Markets discount overnight information immediately at the open.
- **Recalibration:** Thresholds are based on 68 trading days (January–May 2026). Recalibrate monthly by re-running the correlation analysis on fresh data to ensure thresholds remain accurate as market regimes evolve.
---
## Disclaimer
This indicator is a statistical tool based on historical data. Past correlations do not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management. This is not financial advice.
## What this indicator does
This panel displays a real-time pre-market dashboard for DAX40 intraday traders, built on a statistical correlation study between the **VSTOXX volatility index (FVS1!)** and the **DAX40 cash session result**.
The core insight: when VSTOXX falls during the trading session, the DAX tends to rise — and vice versa. This inverse relationship is statistically robust and forms the backbone of the day-type classification shown in the panel.
---
## Statistical Foundation
**Dataset:** 68 trading days | January–May 2026 | 1H session data
| Predictor | Correlation r | r² (variance explained) |
|---|---|---|
| VSTOXX Δ | -0.771 | 0.594 |
| Brent Δ% | -0.608 | 0.369 |
| DE 10Y Δ (bp) | -0.558 | 0.311 |
| Combined model | — | 0.693 |
**Regression formula:** `DAX Δ (pts) = -160 × VSTOXX Δ + 19`
**Combined model:** `DAX Δ = -160 × VSTOXX - 1.9 × DE10Y(bp) - 5.1 × Brent(%) + 19`
The p-value for the VSTOXX/DAX relationship is `1.47e-14` — statistically near-certain, not a coincidence.
---
## VSTOXX Delta Thresholds
All thresholds are data-derived from the historical dataset, not arbitrary:
| VSTOXX Session Δ | Bull% | Range% | Bear% | Avg DAX Δ | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < -1.50 | 100% | 0% | 0% | +516 pts | STRONG BULL |
| -1.50 to -0.70 | 33% | 67% | 0% | +102 pts | BULL / RANGE |
| -0.70 to -0.35 | 47% | 47% | 6% | +156 pts | BULL BIAS |
| ± 0.35 (neutral) | 27% | 65% | 8% | +23 pts | RANGE |
| +0.35 to +0.70 | 8% | 69% | 23% | -51 pts | RANGE / BEAR BIAS |
| +0.70 to +1.50 | 0% | 40% | 60% | -180 pts | BEAR TREND |
| > +1.50 | 0% | 14% | 86% | -340 pts | STRONG BEAR |
---
## Panel Sections Explained
### PRE-MARKET (available from 08:00 CET)
**VSTOXX @ 08:00**
The absolute VSTOXX level at Frankfurt pre-open. Determines the volatility class and expected session range:
- < 20 → Low volatility, expected range ~239 pts
- 20–25 → Medium, expected range ~342 pts
- 25–35 → High, expected range ~500+ pts
- > 35 → Extreme, expected range ~700+ pts
**Expected session range**
Historical average DAX high–low range (09:00–17:30 XETR cash) for the given VSTOXX level class. This is a pre-market estimate, not a live calculation.
**Frankfurt delta (08:00 → 09:00)**
VSTOXX movement during the Frankfurt pre-open hour. This is the **earliest directional signal** (r² = 0.22). A drop of more than 0.30 points suggests bull bias; a rise above 0.30 suggests bear bias. Updates live during the 08:00–09:00 window, then freezes.
**Daily delta (prev close → now)**
Total VSTOXX change since yesterday's 17:00 close. This is what your watchlist/broker dashboard shows as the daily percentage change. Gives overnight context.
### SESSION (available from 09:00 CET)
**VSTOXX Session delta (09:00 → now)**
The primary predictor (r² = 0.594). Measures VSTOXX movement from the cash market open. Updates every bar throughout the session.
**DAGTYPE (Day type)**
Automatic classification based on the session delta and the calibrated thresholds:
`STRONG BULL / BULL TREND / BULL BIAS / RANGE / BEAR BIAS / BEAR TREND / STRONG BEAR`
Green = bullish, Red = bearish, Yellow = range/neutral.
**DAX Verwachting (DAX Expected)**
Regression-based point estimate for the DAX session result (open → close).
Formula: `DAX Δ = -160 × (VSTOXX session Δ) + 19`
**1e uur DAX (First hour DAX)**
DAX price change from session open (09:00) to 10:00 close. Historical accuracy: **73% correct** directional match with the full session close. Available from 10:00 CET.
### MACRO (available from 08:00 CET)
Two supplementary macro inputs that add predictive power on top of VSTOXX:
**Brent Δ% (08:00 → now)**
Brent crude oil percentage change since 08:00. Rising oil = inflationary pressure = bearish for DAX (r² = 0.37). Green = oil falling = DAX bullish context.
**DE 10Y Δ bp (08:00 → now)**
German 10-year Bund yield change in basis points since 08:00. Rising yields = higher discount rates = bearish for DAX valuations (r² = 0.31). Green = yields falling = DAX bullish context.
---
## Color Logic (consistent throughout)
| Color | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 🟢 Green | Bullish for DAX |
| 🔴 Red | Bearish for DAX |
| 🟡 Yellow | Neutral / Range |
| Grey | No data yet |
---
## Setup Instructions
**Required chart:** Germany 40 Cash CFD (IG Markets or equivalent) — **15M timeframe**
> ⚠️ This indicator **must be applied to a 24/7 CFD chart** (not the XETR cash chart). The XETR cash market only opens at 09:00 CET, which means the 08:00 VSTOXX capture is impossible on that chart. The CFD chart runs around the clock, allowing pre-market data to be captured correctly.
**Data sources pulled automatically:**
- `EUREX:FVS1!` — VSTOXX continuous futures
- `TVC:DE10Y` — German 10Y Bund yield
- `OANDA:UKOIL_USD` — Brent crude CFD (real-time, no 15-minute delay)
**Settings (all adjustable in indicator inputs):**
- VSTOXX symbol (default: `EUREX:FVS1!`)
- DE 10Y symbol (default: `TVC:DE10Y`)
- Brent symbol (default: `OANDA:UKOIL_USD`)
- Timezone (default: `Europe/Amsterdam`)
- Frankfurt threshold: 0.30 (first directional signal)
- Bias threshold: 0.35
- Trend threshold: 0.70
- Strong signal threshold: 1.50
- Table position: top-right, top-left, bottom-right, bottom-left
- Background color: on/off
---
## How to Use in Practice
**Before 08:00 CET:** Panel shows "waiting" — no actionable data yet.
**08:00 CET — Frankfurt opens:**
- Check VSTOXX @ 08:00 level → determine volatility class and expected range
- Monitor Frankfurt delta as it builds live → first directional hint
- Check Brent and DE 10Y direction for macro context
**08:00–09:00 CET — Frankfurt hour:**
- If Frankfurt delta > +0.30: bear bias forming
- If Frankfurt delta < -0.30: bull bias forming
- If within ±0.30: neutral, wait for session confirmation
**09:00–09:15 CET — Observation window (no trades):**
- Watch opening bar direction
- Does it confirm or contradict the Frankfurt signal?
**09:15+ CET — Session active:**
- Session delta starts building → day type classification activates
- DAX Expected updates with every VSTOXX tick
- Strong signals (|delta| > 1.50) have 85–100% historical precision
**10:00 CET:**
- First hour result confirms or rejects the pre-market bias
- 73% historical directional accuracy with full session close
---
## Alerts
Four built-in alerts:
1. **Frankfurt BULL signal** — VSTOXX Frankfurt delta crosses below threshold
2. **Frankfurt BEAR signal** — VSTOXX Frankfurt delta crosses above threshold
3. **BULL TREND confirmed** — Session delta crosses into BULL TREND / STRONG BULL zone
4. **BEAR TREND confirmed** — Session delta crosses into BEAR TREND / STRONG BEAR zone
---
## Important Notes
- **Gray zone (±0.35 neutral):** Within this range, VSTOXX alone is insufficient. Use Brent and DE 10Y for additional context. When in doubt, classify as RANGE and trade selectively or not at all.
- **Regression formula accuracy:** r² = 0.594 means VSTOXX explains ~59% of daily DAX variance. The remaining 41% is driven by news, earnings, geopolitics, and other factors not captured in this model.
- **Lead-lag is zero:** Statistical testing confirms that yesterday's VSTOXX, S&P500, or VIX has no meaningful predictive power for today's DAX session. Markets discount overnight information immediately at the open.
- **Recalibration:** Thresholds are based on 68 trading days (January–May 2026). Recalibrate monthly by re-running the correlation analysis on fresh data to ensure thresholds remain accurate as market regimes evolve.
---
## Disclaimer
This indicator is a statistical tool based on historical data. Past correlations do not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management. This is not financial advice.
Versionshinweise
Update — May 2026New in this version:
Macro section added (Brent & DE 10Y)
Two additional macro predictors are now live in the panel alongside VSTOXX. Statistical research on 68 trading days shows Brent crude (r²=0.37) and German 10Y Bund yield (r²=0.31) add meaningful context on top of VSTOXX alone. Combined model R²=0.693 vs 0.594 for VSTOXX only. Green = bullish for DAX, red = bearish.
Live session range (replaces static estimate)
The expected day range now updates dynamically throughout the session. Pre-09:00 it uses the VSTOXX level at 08:00 (formula: 28.6 × level − 281). From 09:00 onwards it switches to the session delta formula (189.4 × |delta| + 199, r²=0.495). Validated on May 7: model gave 369 pts, actual was 389 pts.
Live week range tracker
New row showing the current week's high-low range with color-coded context: green (<600 pts, room to expand), yellow (600–900 pts, normal), orange (900–1200 pts, elevated), red (>1200 pts, expect consolidation/pullback). Based on 18-week historical average of 925 pts.
Settings update required
Three new symbol inputs have been added: DE 10Y (default: TVC:DE10Y) and Brent (default: OANDA:UKOIL_USD). Please verify these in your indicator settings after updating.
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.