OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Monte Carlo Risk Geometry Simulator [Aslan]
Thanks to KioseffTrading for the polyline retracing system and the plotting system as a whole🙏
♦️ What This Script Does
This is a Monte Carlo simulator for visualising and calculating the probability of a return based on risk geometry of the model (Risk %, RR, WR). It assesses the probability of returns by generating hundreds or thousands of possible outcomes using your win rate, risk-reward, and position sizing. Each line you see is a different plausible “future,” showing how your account could realistically evolve.
🔶 How To Use It
Input your strategy stats, run a large number of simulations, and focus on three things: how wide the equity curves spread, how deep drawdowns get, and the percentage of profitable outcomes. Then adjust your model and repeat.
🔷 Application in Prop Firm evaluations
Using the threshold system, you can see what risk geometry is most likely to pass a prop firm evaluation. Suprisingly, the most probable geometry for passing an eval can sometimes have a negative expected value!
♦️ Bottom Line
This script helps you move from “how much can I make?” to “how likely am I to profit?”
🔎 Monte Carlo Simulations Explained
Monte Carlo simulations are a method of modeling uncertainty by running many random versions of the same system to see all possible outcomes. In trading, instead of assuming one fixed result, it repeatedly simulates sequences of wins and losses based on your strategy’s statistics (like win rate and risk-reward). This creates a distribution of potential equity curves, showing not just what did happen, but could happen. It’s essentially a way to test probability and survival under randomness rather than relying on a single backtest. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used on quant trading desks around the world to model uncertainty, test strategy robustness, and estimate the probability distribution of trading outcomes under real-world randomness.
♦️ What This Script Does
This is a Monte Carlo simulator for visualising and calculating the probability of a return based on risk geometry of the model (Risk %, RR, WR). It assesses the probability of returns by generating hundreds or thousands of possible outcomes using your win rate, risk-reward, and position sizing. Each line you see is a different plausible “future,” showing how your account could realistically evolve.
🔶 How To Use It
Input your strategy stats, run a large number of simulations, and focus on three things: how wide the equity curves spread, how deep drawdowns get, and the percentage of profitable outcomes. Then adjust your model and repeat.
🔷 Application in Prop Firm evaluations
Using the threshold system, you can see what risk geometry is most likely to pass a prop firm evaluation. Suprisingly, the most probable geometry for passing an eval can sometimes have a negative expected value!
♦️ Bottom Line
This script helps you move from “how much can I make?” to “how likely am I to profit?”
🔎 Monte Carlo Simulations Explained
Monte Carlo simulations are a method of modeling uncertainty by running many random versions of the same system to see all possible outcomes. In trading, instead of assuming one fixed result, it repeatedly simulates sequences of wins and losses based on your strategy’s statistics (like win rate and risk-reward). This creates a distribution of potential equity curves, showing not just what did happen, but could happen. It’s essentially a way to test probability and survival under randomness rather than relying on a single backtest. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used on quant trading desks around the world to model uncertainty, test strategy robustness, and estimate the probability distribution of trading outcomes under real-world randomness.
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
🚀 Trader / Developer
💎 Premium Indicators: aslanalgo.com
All content provided is solely educational material.
💎 Premium Indicators: aslanalgo.com
All content provided is solely educational material.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
🚀 Trader / Developer
💎 Premium Indicators: aslanalgo.com
All content provided is solely educational material.
💎 Premium Indicators: aslanalgo.com
All content provided is solely educational material.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.