OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Aktualisiert Directional Bias, Flip & Continuation
█ OVERVIEW
Directional Bias, Flip & Continuation is a single decision instrument that answers one question at a time — "which side, and is this a FLIP (reversal) or a CONTINUATION?" — and draws the exact levels that define the read: Trigger, stop, and two targets. Its loudest and most frequent output is STAND ASIDE: by design it spends most of its time telling you there is no clean read, rather than manufacturing one. It issues no buy/sell order and makes no promise; the confidence it shows is an in-script, past-only forward self-test with a Wilson lower bound on THIS chart, not a trained probability.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The tool resolves ONE of four states each confirmed bar, in strict priority order, so the states never contradict each other:
STAND ASIDE (checked first, fires most) — a chaos / extreme-volatility regime, a toxic-tape reading, or price sitting mid-range with no level nearby. This is the default; it is information, not a failure.
FLIP — a confirmed swing trend-flip that occurs AT a graded major level, with order flow not strongly opposed. The side is the flip direction.
CONTINUATION — a trending regime PLUS a confirmed structural break carrying strength PLUS higher-timeframe agreement PLUS price not already stretched into a level. The side is the trend.
CONFLICT — the engines disagree; shown transparently, with no side taken.
Each stage names the method it uses, and every calibrated block shares one scale rather than being independent indicators bolted together:
Regime brain — efficiency ratio (fast vs slow) + ADX with separate trend and strong-trend floors + a self-excitation / volatility-cluster gauge + a variance-ratio random-walk test + an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean-reversion read. A trend must clear BOTH persistence (ER) and strength (ADX) floors, so ordinary chop never reads as a strong trend.
Flip engine — a swing-structure trend flip scored by a composite (structure, momentum, location) with a kill state that vetoes flips in the wrong regime.
Continuation engine — a convex-hull channel break, validated for strength and for higher-timeframe alignment, with a stretch guard so a break into an opposing level is not chased.
Levels & targets — a multi-anchor VWAP / anchored-volume-profile ladder that snaps the Trigger, stop and two targets to real liquidity rather than fixed multiples.
Barriers & confidence — a volatility-scaled, regime-asymmetric profit-target / stop geometry, and a forward reject-vs-continue self-test (two-barrier race) that reports each mode's hit rate with a Wilson 95% lower bound and against a matched base rate; it stays "uncalibrated / warming" until the sample is large enough.
Flow proxy — a lower-timeframe signed-volume CVD estimate (Bulk-Volume-Classification fallback) used only to veto a side that fights strong opposing flow; it abstains on no-volume symbols.
█ HOW TO USE
Read the panel top-down: the state (STAND ASIDE / FLIP / CONTINUATION / CONFLICT) and side, then the confidence line, then the four levels. When a FLIP or CONTINUATION is live, the Trigger / SL / TP1 / TP2 are the levels that define it; when the state is STAND ASIDE they read "—" on purpose. The confidence line shows that mode's own forward-tested floor with its sample size, and says "uncalibrated" until there is enough history — treat a warming or low-confidence read as a reason to wait. The dashboard defaults to Compact (state, side, confidence and the four levels only); switch Dashboard detail to Pro to add the regime, engine-agreement, flow-toxicity and free-text detail rows, and enable the backtest strip to see each mode's forward win% and average R. STAND ASIDE dominating the tape is the tool working, not failing. Horizon and position sizing are yours; it places no orders.
█ INPUTS
00 · Data & Source — price source, borrow-volume symbol for volume-less instruments.
01 · Regime brain — ER fast/slow horizons, ADX length and trend / strong-trend floors, ER floors, volatility-cluster length.
02–05 · Flip / Continuation / Structure — swing length, break validation, HTF timeframe and agreement, stretch guard.
06 · Levels & targets — VWAP / AVP anchors, ladder, snap tolerance, barrier multiples.
07 · Confidence & calibration — reject/continue barrier size, horizon, minimum sample, edge-gate window.
08 · Flow proxy — LTF granularity, classifier, toxicity gate.
09 · Display — dashboard detail (Compact default / Pro), backtest strip, regime breakdown, markers, panel position.
10 · Style — Dark / Light theme.
█ HONESTY & LIMITATIONS
This is a study, not a strategy. The confidence figure is an in-sample, descriptive, forward self-test on visible history with fixed barriers and no costs or slippage — it is not a backtest and not a probability of your next trade working. Order-flow side is an OHLCV estimate and abstains on symbols without volume. Non-repaint by construction: all higher- and lower-timeframe reads use lookahead-off; pivots confirm several bars late; the verdict, its levels, and the outcome tracking all resolve on confirmed bars only, and prior-period levels use the standard non-repainting prior-bar idiom. When the sample is small the confidence is shown as uncalibrated and the read is discounted; when there is no clean setup the tool says STAND ASIDE rather than inventing one. No edge shown is honest, not broken.
█ ORIGINALITY
One coherent decision object, not a signal stack. The original contribution is the strict-priority four-state resolution — STAND ASIDE is evaluated first and dominates, so FLIP and CONTINUATION can only fire when the regime, structure, location and flow all agree — paired with a per-mode confidence that is measured on the chart by a Wilson-bounded forward self-test rather than asserted. Each block (regime, flip, continuation, levels, barriers, flow) exists only to feed that single verdict and its levels; none is presented as a standalone indicator. That combination — a location-aware, regime-gated flip-vs-continuation decision that grades and honestly discounts its own confidence, and whose default answer is "stand aside" — is what distinguishes it from a trend filter, a breakout signal, or a bundle of oscillators.
█ CREDITS
Efficiency ratio — Kaufman. ADX / DMI — Wilder. Variance-ratio random-walk test — Lo & MacKinlay. Mean reversion — Ornstein & Uhlenbeck. Self-exciting clustering — Hawkes. Volume-weighted average price / value-area concepts — Market Profile lineage. Bulk Volume Classification — Easley, López de Prado & O'Hara. Trade-side tick rule — Lee & Ready (1991). Two-barrier forward test — López de Prado. Wilson score interval — Wilson (1927). Code written from scratch; no external script reused.
This script is for analysis and education. It is not financial advice.
Directional Bias, Flip & Continuation is a single decision instrument that answers one question at a time — "which side, and is this a FLIP (reversal) or a CONTINUATION?" — and draws the exact levels that define the read: Trigger, stop, and two targets. Its loudest and most frequent output is STAND ASIDE: by design it spends most of its time telling you there is no clean read, rather than manufacturing one. It issues no buy/sell order and makes no promise; the confidence it shows is an in-script, past-only forward self-test with a Wilson lower bound on THIS chart, not a trained probability.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The tool resolves ONE of four states each confirmed bar, in strict priority order, so the states never contradict each other:
STAND ASIDE (checked first, fires most) — a chaos / extreme-volatility regime, a toxic-tape reading, or price sitting mid-range with no level nearby. This is the default; it is information, not a failure.
FLIP — a confirmed swing trend-flip that occurs AT a graded major level, with order flow not strongly opposed. The side is the flip direction.
CONTINUATION — a trending regime PLUS a confirmed structural break carrying strength PLUS higher-timeframe agreement PLUS price not already stretched into a level. The side is the trend.
CONFLICT — the engines disagree; shown transparently, with no side taken.
Each stage names the method it uses, and every calibrated block shares one scale rather than being independent indicators bolted together:
Regime brain — efficiency ratio (fast vs slow) + ADX with separate trend and strong-trend floors + a self-excitation / volatility-cluster gauge + a variance-ratio random-walk test + an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean-reversion read. A trend must clear BOTH persistence (ER) and strength (ADX) floors, so ordinary chop never reads as a strong trend.
Flip engine — a swing-structure trend flip scored by a composite (structure, momentum, location) with a kill state that vetoes flips in the wrong regime.
Continuation engine — a convex-hull channel break, validated for strength and for higher-timeframe alignment, with a stretch guard so a break into an opposing level is not chased.
Levels & targets — a multi-anchor VWAP / anchored-volume-profile ladder that snaps the Trigger, stop and two targets to real liquidity rather than fixed multiples.
Barriers & confidence — a volatility-scaled, regime-asymmetric profit-target / stop geometry, and a forward reject-vs-continue self-test (two-barrier race) that reports each mode's hit rate with a Wilson 95% lower bound and against a matched base rate; it stays "uncalibrated / warming" until the sample is large enough.
Flow proxy — a lower-timeframe signed-volume CVD estimate (Bulk-Volume-Classification fallback) used only to veto a side that fights strong opposing flow; it abstains on no-volume symbols.
█ HOW TO USE
Read the panel top-down: the state (STAND ASIDE / FLIP / CONTINUATION / CONFLICT) and side, then the confidence line, then the four levels. When a FLIP or CONTINUATION is live, the Trigger / SL / TP1 / TP2 are the levels that define it; when the state is STAND ASIDE they read "—" on purpose. The confidence line shows that mode's own forward-tested floor with its sample size, and says "uncalibrated" until there is enough history — treat a warming or low-confidence read as a reason to wait. The dashboard defaults to Compact (state, side, confidence and the four levels only); switch Dashboard detail to Pro to add the regime, engine-agreement, flow-toxicity and free-text detail rows, and enable the backtest strip to see each mode's forward win% and average R. STAND ASIDE dominating the tape is the tool working, not failing. Horizon and position sizing are yours; it places no orders.
█ INPUTS
00 · Data & Source — price source, borrow-volume symbol for volume-less instruments.
01 · Regime brain — ER fast/slow horizons, ADX length and trend / strong-trend floors, ER floors, volatility-cluster length.
02–05 · Flip / Continuation / Structure — swing length, break validation, HTF timeframe and agreement, stretch guard.
06 · Levels & targets — VWAP / AVP anchors, ladder, snap tolerance, barrier multiples.
07 · Confidence & calibration — reject/continue barrier size, horizon, minimum sample, edge-gate window.
08 · Flow proxy — LTF granularity, classifier, toxicity gate.
09 · Display — dashboard detail (Compact default / Pro), backtest strip, regime breakdown, markers, panel position.
10 · Style — Dark / Light theme.
█ HONESTY & LIMITATIONS
This is a study, not a strategy. The confidence figure is an in-sample, descriptive, forward self-test on visible history with fixed barriers and no costs or slippage — it is not a backtest and not a probability of your next trade working. Order-flow side is an OHLCV estimate and abstains on symbols without volume. Non-repaint by construction: all higher- and lower-timeframe reads use lookahead-off; pivots confirm several bars late; the verdict, its levels, and the outcome tracking all resolve on confirmed bars only, and prior-period levels use the standard non-repainting prior-bar idiom. When the sample is small the confidence is shown as uncalibrated and the read is discounted; when there is no clean setup the tool says STAND ASIDE rather than inventing one. No edge shown is honest, not broken.
█ ORIGINALITY
One coherent decision object, not a signal stack. The original contribution is the strict-priority four-state resolution — STAND ASIDE is evaluated first and dominates, so FLIP and CONTINUATION can only fire when the regime, structure, location and flow all agree — paired with a per-mode confidence that is measured on the chart by a Wilson-bounded forward self-test rather than asserted. Each block (regime, flip, continuation, levels, barriers, flow) exists only to feed that single verdict and its levels; none is presented as a standalone indicator. That combination — a location-aware, regime-gated flip-vs-continuation decision that grades and honestly discounts its own confidence, and whose default answer is "stand aside" — is what distinguishes it from a trend filter, a breakout signal, or a bundle of oscillators.
█ CREDITS
Efficiency ratio — Kaufman. ADX / DMI — Wilder. Variance-ratio random-walk test — Lo & MacKinlay. Mean reversion — Ornstein & Uhlenbeck. Self-exciting clustering — Hawkes. Volume-weighted average price / value-area concepts — Market Profile lineage. Bulk Volume Classification — Easley, López de Prado & O'Hara. Trade-side tick rule — Lee & Ready (1991). Two-barrier forward test — López de Prado. Wilson score interval — Wilson (1927). Code written from scratch; no external script reused.
This script is for analysis and education. It is not financial advice.
Versionshinweise
v0.3 — two order-flow reads folded into the decision core. (1) FLOW/PRICE LEAD-LAG (Lévy area, group 06): the signed area of the joint flow/price path reads WHO MOVES FIRST — FLOW leads (participation precedes price; breakouts better backed) vs PRICE leads (flow chasing; squeeze / stop-run). Shown on the panel, and used to suppress a "Chase break" continuation when price is leading — the failed-break trap. (2) MTF FLOW ALIGNMENT LADDER (group 10): a 3-rung agreement stack (chart + 3× + 5× multiples) of robust-z net-buying pressure with a fused 0–100 conviction — a proper multi-timeframe agreement read, richer than the two HTF bias frames. A flip or continuation is suppressed when the ladder is strongly opposed to it ("trade with the multi-timeframe flow"), shown as an "MTF flow" panel row and an M flag on the Agreement row. Both are single-instrument, self-calibrated and non-repainting (HTF pulled lookahead-off; Lévy on confirmed bars). Everything else — the four-state decision core, regime brain, flip and continuation engines, AEGIS barriers, Wilson confidence, levels and backtest strip — is unchanged. VPIN toxicity was already present and was not re-added. Reconstructed from LTF/HTF volume — an estimate, not the true tape; no Level-2 feed.Educational / informational only — not financial advice, not a signal service, not a guarantee. Confidence and backtest figures are in-sample, fixed-barrier, no-cost readouts on this chart's own history — context, not a verified backtest.
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.