Trend Ledger - Dual Trend Consensus
Trend Ledger combines an ATR-based Supertrend with a fast/slow EMA relationship to show when two trend readings agree and when they diverge. Supertrend supplies the volatility-adjusted trail; the EMA pair supplies a separate directional reading. Their agreement is displayed in one overlay for quick interpretation.
READING THE CHART
• Violet: Supertrend points up and the fast EMA is above the slow EMA.
• Amber: Supertrend points down and the fast EMA is at or below the slow EMA.
• Gray: the two readings disagree.
A translucent gradient extends between the Supertrend trail and the candle midpoint. It is a visual aid, not a confidence band. “▲ both” and “▼ both” capsules mark newly established agreement on closed bars, including agreement returning after disagreement. The corner panel summarizes the state and identifies which reader remains upward during disagreement. Candles are not recolored by the script.
SETTINGS AND ALERTS
Both EMA lengths are adjustable independently in Settings → Inputs: Fast EMA (default 9) and Slow EMA (default 26). Supertrend ATR length (10) and multiplier (2.5) are also adjustable. Style controls include all three state colors, glass transparency, agreement capsules, optional EMA lines, and the status panel position. The screenshot uses a custom chart theme, Glass strength 76, and the panel at the top right; calculation parameters remain at their defaults.
Alerts cover new upward agreement, new downward agreement, and a transition into disagreement. Direction states, the trail, capsules, and alert conditions use confirmed bars. During an open bar, the confirmed state and trail are retained, while the gradient’s candle-midpoint boundary and optional EMA lines may move.
RESEARCH CONTEXT
Author research used Binance BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB on 1H and 4H, with available histories beginning in 2017–2019. Data was split chronologically: training before 2022, validation in 2022–2023, and an untouched test period from 2024 through October 2026.
On the test data, Supertrend 10/2.5 matched retrospectively defined 4×ATR price waves on approximately 66.5% of bars, with 31 direction changes per 1,000 bars and an 11-bar delay. EMA 9/26 was selected as a responsiveness/noise compromise, not the highest-agreement pair. The readers agreed on approximately 85% of bars; wave agreement was approximately 69% during agreement and 52% during disagreement.
These wave labels require future price action and are only a research benchmark. The percentages are historical wave-classification results, not trade win rates or live probabilities. A separate 24-bar forward-direction test across 11 trend tools returned approximately 48–49% agreement and did not demonstrate a predictive advantage under that test. Separate support/resistance comparisons did not establish a clear advantage over random reference levels; this version includes neither S/R levels nor a volume profile.
Trend Ledger describes current conditions rather than forecasting future moves. Both readers lag price, and ranging markets can produce repeated state changes. Capsules are not a complete entry/exit system, and the trail is not a prescribed stop-loss. Historical results may vary across markets, settings, and evaluation methods.
Thank you for your support, feedback, and thoughtful comments — your observations help guide future improvements.
READING THE CHART
• Violet: Supertrend points up and the fast EMA is above the slow EMA.
• Amber: Supertrend points down and the fast EMA is at or below the slow EMA.
• Gray: the two readings disagree.
A translucent gradient extends between the Supertrend trail and the candle midpoint. It is a visual aid, not a confidence band. “▲ both” and “▼ both” capsules mark newly established agreement on closed bars, including agreement returning after disagreement. The corner panel summarizes the state and identifies which reader remains upward during disagreement. Candles are not recolored by the script.
SETTINGS AND ALERTS
Both EMA lengths are adjustable independently in Settings → Inputs: Fast EMA (default 9) and Slow EMA (default 26). Supertrend ATR length (10) and multiplier (2.5) are also adjustable. Style controls include all three state colors, glass transparency, agreement capsules, optional EMA lines, and the status panel position. The screenshot uses a custom chart theme, Glass strength 76, and the panel at the top right; calculation parameters remain at their defaults.
Alerts cover new upward agreement, new downward agreement, and a transition into disagreement. Direction states, the trail, capsules, and alert conditions use confirmed bars. During an open bar, the confirmed state and trail are retained, while the gradient’s candle-midpoint boundary and optional EMA lines may move.
RESEARCH CONTEXT
Author research used Binance BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB on 1H and 4H, with available histories beginning in 2017–2019. Data was split chronologically: training before 2022, validation in 2022–2023, and an untouched test period from 2024 through October 2026.
On the test data, Supertrend 10/2.5 matched retrospectively defined 4×ATR price waves on approximately 66.5% of bars, with 31 direction changes per 1,000 bars and an 11-bar delay. EMA 9/26 was selected as a responsiveness/noise compromise, not the highest-agreement pair. The readers agreed on approximately 85% of bars; wave agreement was approximately 69% during agreement and 52% during disagreement.
These wave labels require future price action and are only a research benchmark. The percentages are historical wave-classification results, not trade win rates or live probabilities. A separate 24-bar forward-direction test across 11 trend tools returned approximately 48–49% agreement and did not demonstrate a predictive advantage under that test. Separate support/resistance comparisons did not establish a clear advantage over random reference levels; this version includes neither S/R levels nor a volume profile.
Trend Ledger describes current conditions rather than forecasting future moves. Both readers lag price, and ranging markets can produce repeated state changes. Capsules are not a complete entry/exit system, and the trail is not a prescribed stop-loss. Historical results may vary across markets, settings, and evaluation methods.
Thank you for your support, feedback, and thoughtful comments — your observations help guide future improvements.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.