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MGC Wyckoff Second Breakout V3 Candle RR

591

**Gold 15-Minute Wyckoff Second Breakout Strategy V3**

## Core Idea

This strategy is based on a Wyckoff-style breakout confirmation concept.

The strategy does **not** enter on the first breakout. Instead, it waits for the market to:

1. Break an isolated high or low.
2. Form a new breakout extreme.
3. Pull back or pause.
4. Break that new extreme again.

The second breakout is treated as the higher-quality confirmation signal.

---

## Timeframe

```text
Chart timeframe: 15 minutes
Market: Gold, preferably XAUUSD or MGC
Trade type: short-term breakout / intraday-to-swing
```

---

## Long Setup

### Step 1: Identify an isolated high

An isolated high is defined as a pivot high.

Default setting:

```text
Pivot Left Bars = 4
Pivot Right Bars = 2
```

This means the high must be higher than the highs of the previous 4 candles and confirmed by the following 2 candles.

This pivot high is called:

```text
H = isolated high
```

---

### Step 2: First breakout above H

A first breakout occurs when price closes above the isolated high:

```text
Close > H
```

The strategy does **not** enter here.

This first breakout only activates the setup.

---

### Step 3: Track the post-breakout high

After the first breakout, the strategy tracks the highest high made after that breakout.

This level is called:

```text
H2 = high formed after the first breakout
```

---

### Step 4: Wait for a pullback or pause

The strategy then waits for price to stop pushing higher.

A pullback/pause is detected when price closes below H2:

```text
Close < H2
```

At this point, the strategy starts waiting for a second breakout.

---

### Step 5: Second breakout above H2

If price closes above H2 within the maximum waiting window, the strategy enters long:

```text
Close > H2
```

Default waiting window:

```text
Max Bars After First Breakout = 20 bars
```

On a 15-minute chart, this is about 5 hours.

---

## Short Setup

The short setup is the mirror image of the long setup.

### Step 1: Identify an isolated low

An isolated low is defined as a pivot low:

```text
Pivot Left Bars = 4
Pivot Right Bars = 2
```

This pivot low is called:

```text
L = isolated low
```

---

### Step 2: First breakdown below L

A first breakdown occurs when price closes below the isolated low:

```text
Close < L
```

The strategy does **not** enter here.

---

### Step 3: Track the post-breakdown low

After the first breakdown, the strategy tracks the lowest low made after that breakdown.

This level is called:

```text
L2 = low formed after the first breakdown
```

---

### Step 4: Wait for a bounce or pause

The strategy waits for price to stop pushing lower.

A bounce/pause is detected when price closes above L2:

```text
Close > L2
```

---

### Step 5: Second breakdown below L2

If price closes below L2 within the maximum waiting window, the strategy enters short:

```text
Close < L2
```

---

## Stop-Loss Logic

The strategy uses a **structure-based stop-loss**.

### Long stop-loss

For long trades:

```text
Stop-loss = lowest low between the first breakout and the second breakout - 0.2 ATR
```

This means the stop is placed below the pullback structure.

---

### Short stop-loss

For short trades:

```text
Stop-loss = highest high between the first breakdown and the second breakdown + 0.2 ATR
```

This means the stop is placed above the bounce structure.

---

## Reward-to-Risk Logic

V3 uses a dynamic reward-to-risk model:

```text
Low-liquidity environment: 1R target
Normal environment: 2R target
Trend expansion environment: 3R target
```

---

## Low-Liquidity Condition

Low liquidity is approximated using small candles and narrow ranges.

The strategy checks whether recent candles are smaller than normal:

```text
Recent average candle body < long-term average candle body × 0.75
AND
Recent average candle range < long-term average candle range × 0.75
```

Default lookback:

```text
Recent lookback = 10 bars
Body average length = 50 bars
Range average length = 100 bars
```

If this condition is true, the strategy uses:

```text
Reward/Risk = 1:1
```

---

## Normal Market Condition

If the market is neither low-liquidity nor trend-expansion, the strategy uses:

```text
Reward/Risk = 2:1
```

---

## Trend Expansion Condition

Trend expansion is based on the breakout candle.

A long trade is considered trend expansion if the second breakout candle:

```text
1. Is a bullish candle
2. Has a body larger than 1.5 × average body
3. Has a total range larger than 1.0 × ATR
4. Closes near the high of the candle
```

A short trade is considered trend expansion if the second breakdown candle:

```text
1. Is a bearish candle
2. Has a body larger than 1.5 × average body
3. Has a total range larger than 1.0 × ATR
4. Closes near the low of the candle
```

If trend expansion is detected, the strategy uses:

```text
Reward/Risk = 3:1
```

---

## Trade Management

Once a trade is entered:

```text
The stop-loss is fixed at the structure stop.
The take-profit is fixed based on the selected R multiple.
The strategy does not trail the stop.
The strategy does not scale in.
The strategy does not scale out.
Only one position is allowed at a time.
```

---

## Default Parameters

```text
Pivot Left Bars: 4
Pivot Right Bars: 2
Max Bars After First Breakout: 20
ATR Length: 14
Structure Stop Buffer: 0.2 ATR

Body Average Length: 50
Range Average Length: 100
Low Liquidity Lookback: 10
Low Liquidity Multiplier: 0.75

Trend Body Expansion Multiplier: 1.5
Trend Range ATR Multiplier: 1.0
Strong Close Position: 0.30

Low Liquidity RR: 1.0
Normal RR: 2.0
Trend Expansion RR: 3.0
```

---

## Summary

In simple terms:

```text
The strategy waits for a breakout, ignores the first breakout, then trades the second breakout after a pause or pullback.

It uses structure-based stops and adjusts the profit target based on candle strength:

Small/narrow market = 1R
Normal market = 2R
Strong breakout candle = 3R
```

This makes it a **Wyckoff-inspired second-breakout momentum strategy with adaptive risk-reward targets**.

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