OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Aktualisiert Mann-Kendall Trend Significance [RC Tools]
RC Tools — Mann-Kendall Trend Significance
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█ OVERVIEW
Most trend tools answer "which way is price going." This one answers a different question: "how statistically unlikely is it that this trend is just noise." It applies the Mann-Kendall test — a nonparametric hypothesis test from statistics, most commonly used in hydrology and climate-science time-series analysis — to price, turning "trend" into a proper standardised test statistic rather than a slope or a moving-average read.
█ WHAT IT DOES
Computes a standardised Z-statistic for monotonic trend over a rolling window and classifies each confirmed bar as a Significant Uptrend or Significant Downtrend once that statistic crosses a configurable significance threshold. Colours the chart background accordingly, plots both the smoothed and raw Z line in a dedicated pane against static threshold lines, and shows a table with the current state, how long price has been in it, and historical base rates (average forward return and win rate) for each state.
█ THE THEORY BEHIND IT
The Mann-Kendall test was developed to detect a monotonic trend in a time series without assuming any particular distribution or that the trend is linear — it only asks whether values tend to rise (or fall) more often than chance would predict. It does this by comparing every pair of points in a window and tallying how often the later point is higher versus lower than the earlier one. Under the null hypothesis of no trend, that tally has a known variance, which lets the raw count be converted into a Z-score — the same logic behind any standard statistical significance test. A Z-score of 1.645, for example, corresponds to the classic 90% one-tailed critical value: at that level, the observed pattern would be expected by pure chance less than 10% of the time.
This is a meaningfully different question from "has price been going up." A choppy market can have more up-days than down-days without ever producing a statistically significant Z-score; a genuinely persistent trend will.
█ HOW IT IS CALCULATED
1. Over a rolling window, compute S — the sum, across every pair of points in the window, of the sign of (later value − earlier value). A persistent uptrend pushes S strongly positive; a persistent downtrend pushes it strongly negative; a directionless window keeps it near zero.
2. Under the null hypothesis of no trend, S has a known variance: Var(S) = n(n−1)(2n+5) / 18, where n is the window length (this assumes no tied values, a reasonable approximation for continuous price data).
3. Standardise S into a Z-score, with the standard continuity correction applied.
4. Optionally smooth the Z-statistic (it is naturally "steppy," since individual pairs enter and exit the window discretely as new bars form).
5. When smoothed Z rises above the long threshold, the state flips to Significant Uptrend. When it falls below the (negative) short threshold, it flips to Significant Downtrend. Otherwise the state holds — this is hysteresis, not noise.
Classification occurs ONLY on confirmed bar close — the plotted Z, the background colour and the table all update together, so nothing here can disagree mid-bar or flip back and forth as the current bar forms.
█ SETTINGS & CONFIGURATION
• Source (default close)
• Window Length (default 20, capped at 50 to keep the pairwise comparison fast)
• Long / Short Significance Thresholds (default 1.645 each, the classic 90% one-tailed critical value) — set independently so long and short conviction can be tuned separately rather than assuming symmetric behaviour
• Smoothing Length and Type (default 3-period EMA) — reduces the raw statistic's step-like behaviour
• Forward Return Window (default 20 bars) — the horizon used for the base-rate table
• Table visibility, position and colours are fully configurable; the main-chart background painting can be toggled off if you only want the statistics pane
█ HOW TO USE IT
Use it as a trend-confirmation filter, not a standalone entry trigger. Because it requires the statistic to clear a significance threshold rather than simply cross zero, it tends to flag fewer, more deliberate trend changes than a typical oscillator — useful for filtering out other tools' false starts in choppy conditions. Check the base-rate table's sample count before treating any single state as meaningfully predictive.
Works on any asset and timeframe with sufficient history for the Window Length.
█ LIMITATIONS
• Mann-Kendall tests for a MONOTONIC trend within the window. It says nothing about the trend's magnitude, and any use of it as a precision entry/exit signal is a misuse.
• The variance formula assumes no tied values, which is reasonable for continuous price data but can be mildly optimistic on assets with heavy price discretisation (e.g. very low-priced or thinly-traded instruments).
• The window length is capped at 50 to keep the pairwise comparison fast — larger structural trends spanning more bars are not captured directly.
• The raw Z statistic is discrete and "steppy" by construction; smoothing trades responsiveness for a cleaner state transition.
• Historical base-rate stats need a meaningful sample count (check N) before being trusted, especially in a low-frequency-flip regime or on a short history.
• This script does NOT repaint. All classification updates on confirmed bar close only.
█ DISCLAIMER
For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice. Past behaviour of any trend-significance state does not indicate future results. Trade at your own risk.
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█ OVERVIEW
Most trend tools answer "which way is price going." This one answers a different question: "how statistically unlikely is it that this trend is just noise." It applies the Mann-Kendall test — a nonparametric hypothesis test from statistics, most commonly used in hydrology and climate-science time-series analysis — to price, turning "trend" into a proper standardised test statistic rather than a slope or a moving-average read.
█ WHAT IT DOES
Computes a standardised Z-statistic for monotonic trend over a rolling window and classifies each confirmed bar as a Significant Uptrend or Significant Downtrend once that statistic crosses a configurable significance threshold. Colours the chart background accordingly, plots both the smoothed and raw Z line in a dedicated pane against static threshold lines, and shows a table with the current state, how long price has been in it, and historical base rates (average forward return and win rate) for each state.
█ THE THEORY BEHIND IT
The Mann-Kendall test was developed to detect a monotonic trend in a time series without assuming any particular distribution or that the trend is linear — it only asks whether values tend to rise (or fall) more often than chance would predict. It does this by comparing every pair of points in a window and tallying how often the later point is higher versus lower than the earlier one. Under the null hypothesis of no trend, that tally has a known variance, which lets the raw count be converted into a Z-score — the same logic behind any standard statistical significance test. A Z-score of 1.645, for example, corresponds to the classic 90% one-tailed critical value: at that level, the observed pattern would be expected by pure chance less than 10% of the time.
This is a meaningfully different question from "has price been going up." A choppy market can have more up-days than down-days without ever producing a statistically significant Z-score; a genuinely persistent trend will.
█ HOW IT IS CALCULATED
1. Over a rolling window, compute S — the sum, across every pair of points in the window, of the sign of (later value − earlier value). A persistent uptrend pushes S strongly positive; a persistent downtrend pushes it strongly negative; a directionless window keeps it near zero.
2. Under the null hypothesis of no trend, S has a known variance: Var(S) = n(n−1)(2n+5) / 18, where n is the window length (this assumes no tied values, a reasonable approximation for continuous price data).
3. Standardise S into a Z-score, with the standard continuity correction applied.
4. Optionally smooth the Z-statistic (it is naturally "steppy," since individual pairs enter and exit the window discretely as new bars form).
5. When smoothed Z rises above the long threshold, the state flips to Significant Uptrend. When it falls below the (negative) short threshold, it flips to Significant Downtrend. Otherwise the state holds — this is hysteresis, not noise.
Classification occurs ONLY on confirmed bar close — the plotted Z, the background colour and the table all update together, so nothing here can disagree mid-bar or flip back and forth as the current bar forms.
█ SETTINGS & CONFIGURATION
• Source (default close)
• Window Length (default 20, capped at 50 to keep the pairwise comparison fast)
• Long / Short Significance Thresholds (default 1.645 each, the classic 90% one-tailed critical value) — set independently so long and short conviction can be tuned separately rather than assuming symmetric behaviour
• Smoothing Length and Type (default 3-period EMA) — reduces the raw statistic's step-like behaviour
• Forward Return Window (default 20 bars) — the horizon used for the base-rate table
• Table visibility, position and colours are fully configurable; the main-chart background painting can be toggled off if you only want the statistics pane
█ HOW TO USE IT
Use it as a trend-confirmation filter, not a standalone entry trigger. Because it requires the statistic to clear a significance threshold rather than simply cross zero, it tends to flag fewer, more deliberate trend changes than a typical oscillator — useful for filtering out other tools' false starts in choppy conditions. Check the base-rate table's sample count before treating any single state as meaningfully predictive.
Works on any asset and timeframe with sufficient history for the Window Length.
█ LIMITATIONS
• Mann-Kendall tests for a MONOTONIC trend within the window. It says nothing about the trend's magnitude, and any use of it as a precision entry/exit signal is a misuse.
• The variance formula assumes no tied values, which is reasonable for continuous price data but can be mildly optimistic on assets with heavy price discretisation (e.g. very low-priced or thinly-traded instruments).
• The window length is capped at 50 to keep the pairwise comparison fast — larger structural trends spanning more bars are not captured directly.
• The raw Z statistic is discrete and "steppy" by construction; smoothing trades responsiveness for a cleaner state transition.
• Historical base-rate stats need a meaningful sample count (check N) before being trusted, especially in a low-frequency-flip regime or on a short history.
• This script does NOT repaint. All classification updates on confirmed bar close only.
█ DISCLAIMER
For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice. Past behaviour of any trend-significance state does not indicate future results. Trade at your own risk.
Versionshinweise
Removed Performance TableOpen-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.