OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Crisis indicator
What This Indicator Does
This indicator acts as an early warning system for potential market crises by tracking 5 of the most reliable financial danger signals that have predicted major market declines throughout history.
The 5 Crisis Signals Monitored
1. Yield Curve Inversion
- What it measures: When short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates
- Why it matters: This has predicted every US recession since 1955
- Trigger: Yield curve drops below your set threshold (default: 0.0)
2. Shiller CAPE Ratio
- What it measures: Stock market valuation adjusted for economic cycles
- Why it matters: Only exceeded 30 during major bubbles (1929, 2000, 2021) - all followed by crashes
- Trigger: CAPE ratio rises above your threshold (default: 30.0)
3. Buffett Indicator
- What it measures: Total stock market value compared to GDP
- Why it matters: Warren Buffett's favorite market valuation gauge
- Trigger: Ratio exceeds your threshold (default: 180%)
4. VIX Complacency
- What it measures: Market fear gauge (Volatility Index)
- Why it matters: Extremely low VIX indicates investor complacency before storms
- Trigger: VIX falls below your threshold (default: 15.0)
5. SPX Extreme Deviation
- What it measures: How far S&P 500 is above its 200-week moving average
- Why it matters: Major tops in 1929, 2000, 2021 all showed extreme deviations
- Trigger: Deviation exceeds your threshold (default: 2.8 standard deviations)
How to Read the Results
The Yellow Line (0-5 Scale)
- Shows how many of the 5 danger signals are currently active
- 0-1: Normal market conditions
- 2: High Risk - Caution advised
- 3+: Crisis Cluster - High probability of market decline
The Information Table
- Shows exactly which signals are triggering
- Displays current values for each indicator
- Color-coded status (Green = Safe, Red = Danger)
Historical Performance
When 3+ indicators flash simultaneously:
- 1999-2000: Preceded Dot-com crash (-49% SPX)
- 2007: Preceded Financial Crisis (-57% SPX)
- 2021: Preceded 2022 bear market (-25% SPX)
This indicator acts as an early warning system for potential market crises by tracking 5 of the most reliable financial danger signals that have predicted major market declines throughout history.
The 5 Crisis Signals Monitored
1. Yield Curve Inversion
- What it measures: When short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates
- Why it matters: This has predicted every US recession since 1955
- Trigger: Yield curve drops below your set threshold (default: 0.0)
2. Shiller CAPE Ratio
- What it measures: Stock market valuation adjusted for economic cycles
- Why it matters: Only exceeded 30 during major bubbles (1929, 2000, 2021) - all followed by crashes
- Trigger: CAPE ratio rises above your threshold (default: 30.0)
3. Buffett Indicator
- What it measures: Total stock market value compared to GDP
- Why it matters: Warren Buffett's favorite market valuation gauge
- Trigger: Ratio exceeds your threshold (default: 180%)
4. VIX Complacency
- What it measures: Market fear gauge (Volatility Index)
- Why it matters: Extremely low VIX indicates investor complacency before storms
- Trigger: VIX falls below your threshold (default: 15.0)
5. SPX Extreme Deviation
- What it measures: How far S&P 500 is above its 200-week moving average
- Why it matters: Major tops in 1929, 2000, 2021 all showed extreme deviations
- Trigger: Deviation exceeds your threshold (default: 2.8 standard deviations)
How to Read the Results
The Yellow Line (0-5 Scale)
- Shows how many of the 5 danger signals are currently active
- 0-1: Normal market conditions
- 2: High Risk - Caution advised
- 3+: Crisis Cluster - High probability of market decline
The Information Table
- Shows exactly which signals are triggering
- Displays current values for each indicator
- Color-coded status (Green = Safe, Red = Danger)
Historical Performance
When 3+ indicators flash simultaneously:
- 1999-2000: Preceded Dot-com crash (-49% SPX)
- 2007: Preceded Financial Crisis (-57% SPX)
- 2021: Preceded 2022 bear market (-25% SPX)
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Open-source Skript
Ganz im Sinne von TradingView hat dieser Autor sein/ihr Script als Open-Source veröffentlicht. Auf diese Weise können nun auch andere Trader das Script rezensieren und die Funktionalität überprüfen. Vielen Dank an den Autor! Sie können das Script kostenlos verwenden, aber eine Wiederveröffentlichung des Codes unterliegt unseren Hausregeln.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.