Hello everyone,
Before you review the analysis, please pay close attention to the educational section first.
1. What Is an Inverted Hammer?
An inverted hammer is a candlestick that forms at the end of a downtrend and can signal a potential trend reversal.
2. What Is Miner Capitulation?
Miner capitulation refers to a situation where major Bitcoin miners are forced to surrender or sell their Bitcoin holdings, often due to financial pressure.
3. What Is Strategy Capitulation?
Strategy capitulation refers to Bitcoin sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) near a cycle bottom, potentially due to financial pressure, the need to cover expenses, prevent bankruptcy, or meet dividend obligations.
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First, Let’s Start With the Inverted Hammer
At the bottoms of the three Bitcoin cycles in 2019, 2022, and 2026, an inverted hammer pattern appeared on the monthly timeframe.
This pattern can signal a potential trend reversal, especially if we are approaching the end of a four-year cycle and a bear market, and particularly when it is combined with miner capitulation.
Now, if next month begins with a bullish candle, it could be a positive sign for the beginning of the next bullish cycle.
Second: Miner Capitulation and Strategy Capitulation
Let’s look at some examples.
December 2018
Miner Capitulation | Severe selling pressure from miners and a sharp decline in hashrate
December 2022
Miners were selling BTC to survive; approximately 40,300 out of 40,700 BTC produced by the 10 largest miners had been sold by the end of November.
We also witnessed miner selling in 2026.
Now, let’s take a look at Strategy.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold Bitcoin once in December 2022.
In August 2026, both Strategy and MARA Digital began selling some of their Bitcoin holdings.
So, let’s answer the important question:
Should We Be Afraid and Run?
We need to look at why they are selling:
🔴 Selling to survive, repay debt, cover expenses, or avoid bankruptcy → this can be a sign of capitulation.
🟠 Selling due to treasury management or profit-taking → this does not necessarily indicate a cycle bottom.
🟢 A large company selling without financial pressure → by itself, this is not a reliable signal that the bear market is ending.
When Strategy and miners are selling Bitcoin because they need to cover expenses or avoid bankruptcy, it can often be a clear sign that we are approaching a Bitcoin cycle bottom.
Putting Everything Together
So, friends, when we put all these factors together — miner capitulation, Strategy capitulation, the monthly inverted hammer, the proximity to day 373 after the market top, and the beginning of the next cycle — they collectively give us an important warning:
Either we are already at the Bitcoin cycle bottom, or we are very close to it.
Don't forget that this is not financial advice.
I am simply presenting a broader idea for you to consider, based on the chart, on-chain data, and historical cycles.
Best regards,
Amir Ghasemi
Before you review the analysis, please pay close attention to the educational section first.
1. What Is an Inverted Hammer?
An inverted hammer is a candlestick that forms at the end of a downtrend and can signal a potential trend reversal.
2. What Is Miner Capitulation?
Miner capitulation refers to a situation where major Bitcoin miners are forced to surrender or sell their Bitcoin holdings, often due to financial pressure.
3. What Is Strategy Capitulation?
Strategy capitulation refers to Bitcoin sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) near a cycle bottom, potentially due to financial pressure, the need to cover expenses, prevent bankruptcy, or meet dividend obligations.
---
First, Let’s Start With the Inverted Hammer
At the bottoms of the three Bitcoin cycles in 2019, 2022, and 2026, an inverted hammer pattern appeared on the monthly timeframe.
This pattern can signal a potential trend reversal, especially if we are approaching the end of a four-year cycle and a bear market, and particularly when it is combined with miner capitulation.
Now, if next month begins with a bullish candle, it could be a positive sign for the beginning of the next bullish cycle.
Second: Miner Capitulation and Strategy Capitulation
Let’s look at some examples.
December 2018
Miner Capitulation | Severe selling pressure from miners and a sharp decline in hashrate
December 2022
Miners were selling BTC to survive; approximately 40,300 out of 40,700 BTC produced by the 10 largest miners had been sold by the end of November.
We also witnessed miner selling in 2026.
Now, let’s take a look at Strategy.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold Bitcoin once in December 2022.
In August 2026, both Strategy and MARA Digital began selling some of their Bitcoin holdings.
So, let’s answer the important question:
Should We Be Afraid and Run?
We need to look at why they are selling:
🔴 Selling to survive, repay debt, cover expenses, or avoid bankruptcy → this can be a sign of capitulation.
🟠 Selling due to treasury management or profit-taking → this does not necessarily indicate a cycle bottom.
🟢 A large company selling without financial pressure → by itself, this is not a reliable signal that the bear market is ending.
When Strategy and miners are selling Bitcoin because they need to cover expenses or avoid bankruptcy, it can often be a clear sign that we are approaching a Bitcoin cycle bottom.
Putting Everything Together
So, friends, when we put all these factors together — miner capitulation, Strategy capitulation, the monthly inverted hammer, the proximity to day 373 after the market top, and the beginning of the next cycle — they collectively give us an important warning:
Either we are already at the Bitcoin cycle bottom, or we are very close to it.
Don't forget that this is not financial advice.
I am simply presenting a broader idea for you to consider, based on the chart, on-chain data, and historical cycles.
Best regards,
Amir Ghasemi
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.