I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I have been golfing, drinking and smoking all morning.
1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,000 -$7,400 | 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Closed my ETH:USD and ETH:BTC shorts due to btcusdshorts’ and lack of sell off following ETF denial / Smoking cigars on the sidelines
Patterns: Higher highers and higher lows on 4h, could form a trend
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,750 - $6,850 | S: $6,670
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back from 40,000 and currently testing trend
Funding Rates: shorts pay long 0.0079%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Price back on top of 12 & 26. Testing 26 for support | 12 = +3.06% | Bullish cross on 1h - 12h
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -3.02% | 128 = -9.51%
Volume: Still below MA, watch for spike if/when we break $6,800 resistance
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,508 | 0.5 = $5,882
Candlestick analysis: Re exploring wick from Aug 22. Usually view this as good selling opportunity, not so sure this time.
Ichimoku Cloud: Saw a tweet (can’t remember who from) who ran a script that determined the Weekly Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are the most spread out (C-Clamp) in years. Strong indication of a bounce. Daily cloud at $7,150 should be resistance
TD’ Sequential: 9 on the 6hr
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,800 - $7,300 (3 month look back)
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +0.69% | 1d = +1.46% | 1w = +6.46% | 2w = +6.46% | 1m = -19.62%
Bollinger Bands: Daily is the most bearish indicator yet. Top of band + horizontal at $6,800 could be sneaky resistance and/or cause for a trap.
Trendline: Connect March 4th to July 24th. Next touch will be around $7,650.
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: UP = $6,916 | DOWN = $6,226
On Balance Volume: Breaking through resistance on daily.
ADX: Bullish cross is meaningless unless ADX’ supports > 25 (would indicate further chop)
Chaikin Money Flow: Weekly still showing large bull div’ | Daily is pulling back for a slight bearish div’
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.29 | D = 48.40 | If both cross 50 it would confirm my expectation of a rally over the next week or two.
Stoch: Daily trending up nicely, with some room to go. Weekly has been trending down, now %K is angling up.
Summary: I started out by seeing a bullish short term setup with my top (most important) indicators, such as: btcusdshorts’ pulling back from resistance. Price > 12 & 26 day EMA’s combined with bullish cross on 1h -12h EMAs. The chart also looks like it is about ready to bust through a key level of resistance.
This is when an inexperienced trader can easily get fooled into buying resistance. This is a great example of why I like to go through all of the indicators that I have found important in the past.
That helped me to notice following resistance cluster before getting too excited: daily BB, horizontals with high volume node, daily Williams’ Fractal and the 9 on the 6hr TD sell setup. Instead of taking a small (1 / 5 normal position size) long I will be staying on the sidelines and prepare to sell the bounce.
Cheers!
FULL DISCLOSURE: I have been golfing, drinking and smoking all morning.
1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,000 -$7,400 | 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Closed my ETH:USD and ETH:BTC shorts due to btcusdshorts’ and lack of sell off following ETF denial / Smoking cigars on the sidelines
Patterns: Higher highers and higher lows on 4h, could form a trend
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,750 - $6,850 | S: $6,670
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back from 40,000 and currently testing trend
Funding Rates: shorts pay long 0.0079%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Price back on top of 12 & 26. Testing 26 for support | 12 = +3.06% | Bullish cross on 1h - 12h
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -3.02% | 128 = -9.51%
Volume: Still below MA, watch for spike if/when we break $6,800 resistance
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,508 | 0.5 = $5,882
Candlestick analysis: Re exploring wick from Aug 22. Usually view this as good selling opportunity, not so sure this time.
Ichimoku Cloud: Saw a tweet (can’t remember who from) who ran a script that determined the Weekly Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are the most spread out (C-Clamp) in years. Strong indication of a bounce. Daily cloud at $7,150 should be resistance
TD’ Sequential: 9 on the 6hr
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,800 - $7,300 (3 month look back)
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +0.69% | 1d = +1.46% | 1w = +6.46% | 2w = +6.46% | 1m = -19.62%
Bollinger Bands: Daily is the most bearish indicator yet. Top of band + horizontal at $6,800 could be sneaky resistance and/or cause for a trap.
Trendline: Connect March 4th to July 24th. Next touch will be around $7,650.
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: UP = $6,916 | DOWN = $6,226
On Balance Volume: Breaking through resistance on daily.
ADX: Bullish cross is meaningless unless ADX’ supports > 25 (would indicate further chop)
Chaikin Money Flow: Weekly still showing large bull div’ | Daily is pulling back for a slight bearish div’
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.29 | D = 48.40 | If both cross 50 it would confirm my expectation of a rally over the next week or two.
Stoch: Daily trending up nicely, with some room to go. Weekly has been trending down, now %K is angling up.
Summary: I started out by seeing a bullish short term setup with my top (most important) indicators, such as: btcusdshorts’ pulling back from resistance. Price > 12 & 26 day EMA’s combined with bullish cross on 1h -12h EMAs. The chart also looks like it is about ready to bust through a key level of resistance.
This is when an inexperienced trader can easily get fooled into buying resistance. This is a great example of why I like to go through all of the indicators that I have found important in the past.
That helped me to notice following resistance cluster before getting too excited: daily BB, horizontals with high volume node, daily Williams’ Fractal and the 9 on the 6hr TD sell setup. Instead of taking a small (1 / 5 normal position size) long I will be staying on the sidelines and prepare to sell the bounce.
Cheers!
Nota
Chart below illustrates how lower time frames could make it look like we are at support, whereas zooming out shows bears attempting to turn prior support into resistance. 
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.