Hey Traders, 
BITCOIN is currently trading within established descending channel since August highs at $124k, The recent bounce has now pushed price back up, currently sitting at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and likely heading into a critical supply zone at 115K–116K, which also aligns with the 50% Fib level.
This confluence, combined with RSI nearing overbought territory and the potential formation of a hidden bearish divergence(price making lower highs while RSI makes higher highs), suggests that momentum is weakening as we approach resistance. Historically on this chart, bearish divergences have often preceded meaningful pullbacks.
Unless bulls can break decisively above this zone and invalidate the channel structure, the probability favors rejection and continuation lower. My short‑term outlook points toward a move back into the demand zone, with Target 1 and Target 2 marked as key levels to watch for the next leg down.
Scenarios
🔴 Bearish (Higher Probability)
🟢 Bullish Alternative
BITCOIN is currently trading within established descending channel since August highs at $124k, The recent bounce has now pushed price back up, currently sitting at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and likely heading into a critical supply zone at 115K–116K, which also aligns with the 50% Fib level. This confluence, combined with RSI nearing overbought territory and the potential formation of a hidden bearish divergence(price making lower highs while RSI makes higher highs), suggests that momentum is weakening as we approach resistance. Historically on this chart, bearish divergences have often preceded meaningful pullbacks.
Unless bulls can break decisively above this zone and invalidate the channel structure, the probability favors rejection and continuation lower. My short‑term outlook points toward a move back into the demand zone, with Target 1 and Target 2 marked as key levels to watch for the next leg down.
Scenarios
🔴 Bearish (Higher Probability)
- Rejection from 115K–116K supply zone (Fib 50–61.8 + channel resistance).
- Short-term correction toward 110K, with deeper moves into 107K–105K demand zone.
🟢 Bullish Alternative
- Break & close above 116K (channel + supply + 61.8 Fib) would invalidate this setup.
- Opens room for a rally toward 120K+, but less likely given RSI divergence and supply pressure.
Nota
Price in fib confluence + supply zone - I believe current formation will be a bull trap. watching the price action and expecting a rejection NY open. Nota
Sell volume increasing > Reversal doji formed around 61.8% fib > negative RSI divergence.
The NFX Team ™️💚
Publicaciones relacionadas
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
The NFX Team ™️💚
Publicaciones relacionadas
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.