BTCUSDT is trading around 75,830 USDT after breaking below the 76,300–77,200 support zone. This breakdown was accompanied by strong selling pressure; with the price currently sitting below both the EMA34 (approx. 76,965) and EMA89 (approx. 77,210), sellers remain in control of the H1 market structure.
The 76,300–77,200 zone has now shifted into a retest resistance area. If BTC rallies to this region but fails to reclaim the EMA cluster, I lean towards a scenario where the price continues to decline to 75,000, potentially extending to the primary target near 74,200 USDT.
Macro factors today also reinforce the bearish outlook. Reuters reported a drop in Bitcoin to around 75,816 USD after the US Senate failed to pass a procedural step for the Clarity Act; meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, and the market is pricing in a greater than 90% probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in today's decision. This combination creates a rather unfavorable environment for risk-on assets.
The bearish scenario would be invalidated if BTC decisively reclaims the 77,200–77,500 range.
The 76,300–77,200 zone has now shifted into a retest resistance area. If BTC rallies to this region but fails to reclaim the EMA cluster, I lean towards a scenario where the price continues to decline to 75,000, potentially extending to the primary target near 74,200 USDT.
Macro factors today also reinforce the bearish outlook. Reuters reported a drop in Bitcoin to around 75,816 USD after the US Senate failed to pass a procedural step for the Clarity Act; meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, and the market is pricing in a greater than 90% probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in today's decision. This combination creates a rather unfavorable environment for risk-on assets.
The bearish scenario would be invalidated if BTC decisively reclaims the 77,200–77,500 range.
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